Untold Arsenal » What does Ronaldo’s move mean for Arsenal and the EPL?

There is muttering in Spain. Real Mad are known to have government support – the deal they did over the training ground, the way they can borrow when others can’t – I won’t go into that in detail – you can read it all elsewhere.

So Barca et al are unhappy, but, at least for the moment, that is not our problem. Our problem is what the activity in Spain means for Arsenal and the other senior teams in the EPL.

As always I have to say I have no more knowledge than anyone else; all I can do is make suggestions in the sure knowledge that you can point out where I have gone wrong, and what bits I am missing.

Manchester IOU would still be bankrupt even if they used all the Da-Do-Ron-Ron money (that’s a trivial reference to a 1960s hit from the Phil Spector laboratory – don’t worry about it, its not important). The £80m will be paid by Real Mad over five years, so even if it all went into debt management it would still only cut this year’s losses by £18m which is nothing given how much Manchester owes.

Besides Sir Alex F Word is out of the control of the owners, and he’ll spend what he wants. I would guess he’ll be looking to splash around £100m – also with payments over five years. He’ll move on one or two of his less successful past buys, and try to promote from the ranks too, to deal with an aging team. (Giggs is 100 this year, so he won’t start so many games).

KGB Fulham have a new manager so that means spending other people’s money (most particularly Abramovich’s money). What we saw in the early part of last season is that Abramovich gave up on the club and wandered off to lick his financial wounds. He’s back – but if the new boss repeats the form of his last two years he won’t be happy. 5th place in the Italian league for Milan was not quite what the KGB are looking for.

But more to the point – with money to throw around in both KGB and Manchester IOU there is going to be a bidding war going on – unless KGB buy Italians (which IOU rarely do). Everywhere clubs are putting their prices up, and even if the two big buying clubs go for utterly different players the prices will rise to take account of the dosh available.

Liverpool Insolvency will be groaning at this. While their two spend-spend-spend rivals have more money they have less. If RBS do refinance them, it will be with guarantees from the American owners. What’s more, almost all of the £350m loan has been spent on buying the club, past transfers and interest on the losses. The new bank deal must include a clause that says the interest to RBS must be paid monthly, and can’t be rolled over.

Put that lot together and you have no capital for player purchases without sales. Worse, Liverpool’s player wages are already considerably below their rivals in the top four of EPL so they can’t cut back there.

Any purchases they make will either be on delayed payment or funded by sales of others – until they can find a new source of money. At a time of hugely rising prices, they are scuppered, and will, I believe, turn to the Arsenal model of youth development. Although their youth team is nowhere near as good as Arsenal’s, it is still very good by normal standards and they might be able to promote a few players, and bring in one or two unknowns on a gamble.

Arsenal of course are already there. World-wide scouting, a brilliant youth team, and a number of reserves ready to break through – it is all in place. Plus, because Arsenal go shopping where others often don’t look we are not affected by the Crazy Prices game that exists among the big names. This is, in fact, the moment when it all comes good for Arsenal, just as it all goes bad for Liverpool. It might only be two purchases in the £10m bracket, but there will be the players back from loan, the players stepping up, the return (hopefully) of Eduardo and Rosicky, and the further development of Song, Denilison, Vela, Wilshere, Djourou. Plus the certainty that we have solid reserve full backs. Merida could burst on the scene, and ahead of him is Ramsey as Cesc II.

Aston Villa, Everton. These are the two pretenders of recent years – Everton once actually came fourth if you recall when Liverpool came fifth – and they are forever talking up their chances of breaking in. In the current climate they simply won’t be able to buy. Villa lost Barry because he lost faith in them, and their turnover and wage power is tiny coimpared to the top four. Their only hope is a wholesale fall of Liverpool – but even if that happens there is a new threat below.

Manchester Arab are not affected by the rise in costs, because they can play the money game too. But, think of Kaka. He refused to leave Milan for Manchester (a perfectly reasonable decision) but rushed off to Madrid for half the amount the Arabs were offering. And that is Manchester’s problem. No one takes them seriously because they offered stupid money. They will build a team – and I suspect put in a challenge – but they still can’t buy top players at the top table, and they don’t have a world-wide scouting or youth policy. If Liverpool do slip this year because of their money troubles, it could be the Arabs who take their place, not Villa or Everton.

The Tiny Totts. About ten players are up for sale and this is the year that the Totts will break into the top four. So its the same as last year, the year before, and so on back to that moment in the 13th century when Danny Blanchflower killed a dragon and rescued Lancelot – or something like that. Arry is a wheeler dealer who gets arrested by the police, and people of that ilk either get it totally wrong (Southampton) or semi-right (Portsmouth). Who knows. Maybe Bentley could go to Manchester Arab.

Beyond these clubs it is hard to see who else in England is going to be bothered by the return of the Real Mad cheque book. I expect the manager at Hull Spitty will announce next week he is signing David Beckham, and in his head he probably will.

I wish next season’s football fixtures would hurry up and arrive. I can’t plan my theatre visits without knowing when we’re at home.

(c) Tony Attwood, Planet Zorg, the Outer Rings of the M25.