Transfer Targets, No-one is Risk-Free « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade

By Dale Higginbottom

We’re well into June now and the transfer window is wide open. The international games are now out of the way so speculation is again looming with players all over the globe being linked with a move to the Emirates but which ones can we take seriously? Last summer we had something like 100 players that the club were rumoured to be in talks with/interested in/close to signing/etc. but very few of these players were actually even considered by the club, let alone in talks with them or even close to signing.

Over recent years our club has definitely had somewhat of a minimalist approach when it comes to player transfers, with focus being put on giving some of the players from the youth system a chance. However, the suggestion is that this summer there could be a slight change of focus but how much of a change will this be and how will the policy differ from pervious summer windows? To look into this we need to look at what has happened in the past and what many people believe our transfer policy to be.

One view that has been flogged to death over the past few seasons is that Arsène doesn’t trust English/British players. Now this is just a ridiculous notion that simply has no evidence to back it up. The fact that we have an exciting youth project with an academy that has produced and developed the likes of Wilshere, Gibbs, Lansbury, Bartley, Emmanuel-Thomas, Afobe to name a few  kind of puts paid to that argument.

The next argument is that Arsène doesn’t buy English/British players but signings of Ramsey, Walcott and the re-signing of Sol Campbell again suggests that he’s not averse to signing British players if the right player comes along. Indeed, Arsène has consistently said that he’ll buy a player (at the right price) so long as he’ll improve the squad and this decision is irrespective of nationality.

So, given that we’ve dismissed some of these myths, maybe we need to look into the transfer history of the past few seasons and see what that can tell us? Well, firstly we’re definitely happy to spend money overseas. Our extensive scouting network gives the club great knowledge of players playing at a high level in many leagues and gives us the edge over a number of clubs to pick up bargain players ready for the first team squad (Chamakh, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Arshavin, Nasri, Eduardo, Sagna to name a few). This network is also responsible for finding exciting younger players that need to be developed a little before being trusted in the first team. Players the likes of Szczesny, Clichy, Song, Diaby, Fabregas, van Persie and Bendtner have all been brought through in this way.

In addition to the overseas scouting, we have a team of scouts that focus on the domestic game and young players that can be brought in at an early age and developed in an “Arsenal way”. This system has always been in place, in the past bringing in the likes of Pennant and Upson but more recently players like Walcott, Ramsey, Bartley, Freeman and Jenkinson.

But what’s missing? What area do we not buy players in? Well, let’s looks more at the British signings over the past few years.

Player Signed When Signed From
Jenkinson* Summer 2011 Charlton Athletic
Campbell January 2010 No Club
Ramsey Summer 2008 Cardiff City
Freeman January 2008 Gillingham
Bartley Summer 2007 Bolton Wanderers
Walcott January 2006 Southampton

*Dual nationality. Could play for England if he chooses..

Before I continue, I can’t be sure that I’ve not missed any young players that have been signed from other clubs (excluding pre-16 year old moves) but I think my next point will still be valid.

Anyway, what do we see here? Well, the obvious point is where the players are signed from. None of the above players were signed from a Premier League team (yes, Bartley is the exception but he never played for the Bolton first team) and therefore none of the above players had any Premier League experience before signing for Arsenal. There is good reason for this, as we’ve seen with some of the signings made by other clubs this summer, British players with Premier League experience come with built-in young British player inflation.

But do we have something here? British players don’t always have to be so expensive; indeed we’ve picked up some bargains in that list. No, is the issue more that players from other Premier League clubs are too expensive?  The recent transfers of Jordan Henderson, Fernando Torres, Andy Carroll, Phil Jones, Darren Bent and the expected price given to Luka Modric’s possible move shows that clubs are willing to put a high value on players with Premier League experience but maybe that value is a little too high and therefore as a result, is Premier League experience over-priced?

So, what if we look at the players we have bought in the past from other Premier League teams?

Player Signed When Signed From
Silvestre Summer 2008 Man. Utd
Diarra Summer 2007 Chelsea
Gallas Summer 2006 Chelsea
Poom January 2006 Sunderland

Beyond these we’re going back to Richard Wright and Francis Jeffers and we all know how successful those signings were for us. However, more to the point with this list is that each of these signings was not a typical (if there is such a thing) signing. By this I mean none of these were signed with the expectation of an instant first team place and all were signed because there was a good deal to be done. Certainly, we’ve not seen Arsène Wenger go out and chase the “experienced” player, matching their current club’s inflated demands.

But maybe that’s the point. Premier League experience is over-valued. Yes, it is always difficult for overseas players to adapt to a new country and culture but with an already multi-cultured squad at Arsenal, new players should find it fairly easy to settle in, just look at how quickly Chamakh got started last season. Yes, some players get homesick (e.g. José Antonio Reyes) but with the right support this can be managed and being away from home is not something limited to players bought from overseas. Man City bought Carlos Tevez after he was pretty settled in England but after the break-up of his relationship to his daughter’s mother, he now finds it difficult to be away from his daughter, who now lives back in Argentina and I also remember Robbie Savage requesting a transfer in order to be closer to his parents.

It’s not just about settling into a new country and culture, even just settling into a new club can be difficult. Take David Bentley for example, he’s completely disappeared since his move to Spurs. Despite the obvious disliking that most Arsenal fans have for him, we can all admit that the move from Arsenal to Blackburn was quite good for him. He became a regular in the Blackburn team and impressed a lot of people so that when the Tiny Totts stumped up £15m for him it wasn’t the most outlandish offer ever seen in the Premier League but it reflected the fact that he was a fairly successful Premier League player. This move has since shown not to work for both Bentley and the Tiny Totts (other than the odd fluke goal), and it maybe shows that buying Premier League experience does necessarily mean that you’ll obtain a player with Premier League quality.

Bentley’s case was an interesting one as he obviously had enough quality (both at Blackburn and Arsenal) and I’m pretty sure Arsène wanted to keep him but maybe it’s something in the big money move and the mindset of the player. Bentley’s move to Blackburn gave him the motivation to prove Wenger wrong and make something of his career and maybe domestic players, that are yet to make their mark in a big club, have that motivation, at least to some degree. The big money move to Spurs then gave Bentley the recognition that he’d “made it” in the world’s biggest league and so his motivation to perform could’ve gone.

Buying players from overseas or bringing in young domestic-based players could (at least to some extent) reduce some of the motivation factor. Players still want to prove themselves in the Premier League as it’s where the fame and the money is and maybe this extra drive and motivation balances out some of the benefits of getting a player with Premier League experience.

Now, I’m not saying that the likes of Gary Cahill, Phil Jagielka or Chris Samba are not on Arsène’s radar, nor am I saying that these players will lack all effort once they get a big money move. Similarly I’m not saying that we won’t put offers in for such players, as we have been believed to have done for Phil Jones and Mark Schwarzer. No, what I’m saying is that every transfer has its risks and every player might have problems in settling in, whichever club he decides to move to. Given all this additional price hike attributed to the transfer fees of existing Premier League players seems, to some degree, be too much of a price to pay, given that the risks can be just as high. Arsène may decide that a player is worth £Xm and he won’t be held to ransom over this perceived belief that Premier League experience is essential.

There are different levels of experience and different types of experience and not all are as valuable as each other. The question is, what type of experience is needed for Arsenal? Top league experience in Span, Italy, France, Germany or Holland? Champions league or Europa League experience? International experience? All of these can be valuable in their own way and no-one can truly be certain as to the true value of a player once he’s signed on the dotted line.

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