Top of the table predictions – the gameweek 0 edition « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. 800,000 visits last month
By Phil Gregory
Right, so, to follow up on my articles over the summer looking at the various teams competing against the mighty Arsenal at the top of the table, it seems reasonable to put it all together and see where my guess is of the final table. Without further ado…
First up, United are somewhat stronger this year with the addition of RvP but I wouldn’t say they were significantly so. They still look a little overdependent on the flanks for creativity and by extension, on an ageing Paul Scholes firing the ball out to the wingers to get the attacks moving. Van Persie certainly strengthens them, as does the return of Vidic from injury but ultimately I don’t think United will be too much different this season to last season – if they avoid crashing out of Europe at the first hurdle that will put an additional strain on them during the run=in
The same could be said of City. They’ve struggled to ship out squad players given their big wages and so transfers in have been limited, much to the public irritation of Mancini. They’ve got Rodwell, who will provide some cover at defensive midfield, but that was only really a marginal issue for City, who could arguably put the likes of Toure and Barry there if De Jong was out. Again, Europe will provide an additional test during the run-in, so I don’t think City will be much changed. Even expecting a slight improvement from United this year, I still think City will finish above them.
Spurs are an interesting case. While it’s not official yet, it looks like Modric is out of the door and it’s getting fairly late in the window to be drafting in a replacement for a very, very important member of the first eleven. Their defence looks much stronger despite the retirement of King with the likes of Caulker, Kaboul and Vertonghen a formidable defensive unit that can be relied on to stay fit over the course of the year, unlike King, Gallas and co.
The big issue will be the Modric replacement, how he settles in to what will be a bit of baptism of fire in the Premier League, with the season already in full swing, assuming of course they do secure someone. Goalkeeper is also a bit of concern with Friedel getting on, and I wish good luck to any side who look like going into the first match of the season with Jermaine Defoe as their only striker.
As such, Spurs look quite a bit weaker this season. There is still time in the transfer window – and I will be revisiting these predictions once it slams shut – but at this moment in time all but the most blinded Spurs fan will have concerns at a Modric-less, one-striker squad heading into the season. How much slippage can Spurs afford?
Well, not too much with surprise package Newcastle only finishing four points behind them last season. The Toon have strengthened this season with some intelligent signings but will be most pleased at keeping hold of their newly discovered selection of stars. Newcastle fans must be optimistic at the prospect of having a full season of Cisse up front, but weighing against them is the fact that opposition teams now know they are a team to beat. For those reasons I expect them to be there or thereabouts the Champions League places, but with a Europa League campaign weighing them down I think they’d be happy with a push for fourth and a Europa League place next season. If they approach it seriously, they could be in with a shout of a European trophy come May.
Chelsea, despite spending extensively, are going into this season without a right back, an oversight of some magnitude. Some will point out that Ivanovic is happy to play there, but if Chelsea were happy with that solution they wouldn’t have been pursuing Azpilcueta all summer, I would wager, and I also question the wisdom of playing one of their best centrebacks at right back. Chelsea have certainly secured an array of attacking talent , but I have my reservations it will get the pitch time it justifies with big personalities like Lampard having the ear of Abramovich and Di Matteo.
Factor in some managerial uncertainty – it is Chelsea after all, and they shopped around the managerial hypermarket before begrudgingly going for Di Matteo – and Chelsea could well surprise many people and not actually push on much at all this season. I expect them to improve somewhat, but I’ll be surprised if they wipe the floor with top four rivals Newcastle and Tottenham.
Some Chelsea fans are optimistic given they won’t have the minor civil war that brewed up under Villas Boas, but that is simplistic: they’ll still struggle to get their best players on the pitch given Lampard and Terry’s influence over the manager, and I’m sure the odds reflect a sacking at some point in December too. Coming fourth is not implausible given the uncertainty around Spurs’ iffy transfer window and Newcastle’s relative newness to these parts of the table, but I’d definitely wager that they’re more likely to come in 5th/6th rather than the last CL berth.
That leaves a new look Liverpool. Realistically, they have too much ground to make up threaten the top four short of signing Messi before the close of the window, but they seem to buying wisely with an eye on future steady progression up the table. I have my reservations in regards to Joe Allen for £15m syndrome (Charlie Adam syndrome? Sure the Welshman is younger and much less fat, but £15mish got us Cazorla…). Rodgers seems to be dragging them into the footballing 21st century and wisely marginalising Carroll to an impact sub role, but Liverpool are still one injury away from Jay Spearing shielding the back four, so work remains to be done. Overall I expect the Scouse to improve this season, but with Carroll’s continued inadequacy in basic footballing skills there is a lot of pressure for goals on Suarez (whose record isn’t the best on these shores) and new signing Borini. Ultimately this season will be one of progress for Liverpool, so a solid push for the Europa league places with a developing side playing some decent football will be a good season if I were a Scouser.
So from that if you haven’t discerned, I’m expecting:
- City
- United
- Arsenal
- Spurs
- Chelsea
- Newcastle
- Liverpool
To be the line-up come May. I suspect the top three will be the clear title contenders come November time, and the gap between Arsenal and Spurs will open up once again this year. Prior to the Van Persie sale I did feel confident of Arsenal overhauling United this season at least, but ultimately I feel to do that I’d be banking on the likes of Santi, Giroud and Podolski all starting in excellent fashion. I feel the extra depth in attack, aerial threat of Giroud and starting the season with a plethora of defensive talent available bar Sagna’s injury will stand Arsenal in good stead for a solid season. Oh, and the big step up in quality in the playmaking position.
Ultimately though, I am conceding that I think City will win the title again. Last year I felt that they were looking like Mourinho’s Chelsea in terms of potency, with just a couple of maverick characters letting them down. I strongly feel the gulf between United and City is much wider than the goal difference that separated them last season, and think their head to head results were indicative in that regard.
Spurs get the tip for fourth as ultimately I think they’ll manage to sort out their striker issues and replace Modric, but it could be a rough month or two at the start of the season for the Spurs as players settle in. They’ll come through it much like we did last season, though I wouldn’t mind us winning the CL to edge them out of the Champions League for the second year running.
Anyway, that’s my tip for the way the season will play out, I’ll revisit this come the close of the window – my Spurs and Chelsea predictions in particular are a little dependent on expected transfer activity. We’ll see!
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Ordinary is Pointless
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