The Untold Referee League Tables: where the bias really shows (and it didn’t “even out in the end”) « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News, supporting the club, the players and the manager
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This article is part of the series : REFEREE REVIEW 2012
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By DogFace and Walter Broeckx
Untold Arsenal has a team of qualified referees who have reviewed more than 40% of the EPL games from last season. The reviews themselves were based on full match video footage with the advantage of video technology features such as slow motion and pause.
By reviewing those 155 games we have made a database of more than 7000 decisions that have been judged by our panel of dedicated and qualified referees.
The numbers you will see are based on those decisions and those reviewed games.
In the earlier resume and league tables we just gave the number of correct decisions without looking at who benefited from the decisions.
In this article we will highlight who has been benefiting most and who has suffered most from the referee mistakes.
In the league tables being in 1st place means that the refs gave you the favours. Being 20th means that the refs gave most of the wrong decisions against said team.
But what is maybe even more important is that in these tables we can show you if and for whom it has evened out. Because if we get to a score of 0.000 this means that the decisions in the games we reviewed have evened out. Now that will be mighty interesting don’t you think? Well I do think it is. The best way to see this is in the total bias table.
So let us move on and look at the bias and how the teams had to cope with it.
Home bias Un-weighted
| Home Bias | Un-weighted | +/- Average | |
| 1 | QPR | 12,999 | 11,173 |
| 2 | MAN U | 5,647 | 3,821 |
| 3 | ASTON VILLA | 5,500 | 3,674 |
| 4 | STOKE | 5,400 | 3,574 |
| 5 | FULHAM | 5,167 | 3,341 |
| 6 | NEWCASTLE | 4,500 | 2,674 |
| 7 | TOTTENHAM | 3,800 | 1,974 |
| 8 | LIVERPOOL | 3,546 | 1,720 |
| 9 | SWANSEA | 3,000 | 1,174 |
| 10 | WIGAN | 2,250 | 0,424 |
| 11 | MAN C | 2,187 | 0,361 |
| 12 | WBA | 2,000 | 0,174 |
| 13 | WOLVES | 2,000 | 0,174 |
| 14 | BLACKBURN | 2,000 | 0,174 |
| 15 | CHELSEA | 1,933 | 0,107 |
| 16 | BOLTON | 1,834 | 0,008 |
| 17 | EVERTON | 1,714 | -0,112 |
| 18 | NORWICH | 1,000 | -0,826 |
| 19 | SUNDERLAND | -1,832 | -3,658 |
| 20 | ARSENAL | -8,264 | -10,090 |
In this first table we see that QPR had the biggest home bias of all the teams. They had the biggest difference from the “normal” home bias. An even bigger difference than Arsenal had on the other side of the table.
In second place we have Manchester United with their positive home bias at Old Trafford. And this might be a surprise but Aston Villa is the team in third place in this table. I must admit I didn’t see that coming.
18 teams had a positive home bias. The two exceptions are Sunderland and Arsenal. But if we look at the overall home bias we have found in all the games we can see that 4 teams didn’t get that positive bias. Those teams are Everton, Norwich, Sunderland and Arsenal.
Last seasons champions Manchester City are in the middle of the pack somewhere.
Let us move on to the away bias.
Away bias un-weighted
| Away Bias | Un-Weighted | +/- Average | |
| 1 | STOKE | 6,333 | 8,159 |
| 2 | QPR | 1,800 | 3,626 |
| 3 | NORWICH | 1,600 | 3,426 |
| 4 | FULHAM | 1,250 | 3,076 |
| 5 | BOLTON | 1,160 | 1,000 |
| 6 | MAN U | 1,000 | 2,826 |
| 7 | LIVERPOOL | 0,777 | 2,603 |
| 8 | SUNDERLAND | -0,125 | 1,701 |
| 9 | TOTTENHAM | -0,636 | 1,190 |
| 10 | BLACKBURN | -0,666 | 1,160 |
| 11 | CHELSEA | -1,000 | 0,826 |
| 12 | EVERTON | -1,600 | 0,226 |
| 13 | SWANSEA | -1,750 | 0,076 |
| 14 | WOLVES | -1,750 | 0,076 |
| 15 | NEWCASTLE | -2,000 | -0,174 |
| 16 | WIGAN | -2,500 | -0,674 |
| 17 | MAN C | -2,750 | -0,924 |
| 18 | ASTON VILLA | -3,500 | -1,674 |
| 19 | WBA | -6,000 | -4,174 |
| 20 | ARSENAL | -10,054 | -8,228 |
In this table we see Stoke taking first place. This means that Stoke who came 4th in the home bias was the team that got most wrong calls going their way when away from home. Some people have said that the positive bias at home for Stoke was down to their audience. But that doesn’t explain these numbers. QPR comes in second place in this table so they sure are getting some doubtful decisions going their way both at home and away.
In 3rd place we find Norwich in this table.
And talking about contrary numbers. Aston Villa who had the third highest home bias in their favour is now the third worst off from all the teams when going away. West Bromwich Albion is also very poorly treated away from home. As is Arsenal.
In total we had 7 teams who received a positive bias away from home. So 13 teams got what is normal one could say.
But if we look at the league average bias score we see that 14 teams received a bias that even though it was maybe negative was till better than what can be expected.
Now let us see if the expression: “it will even out” can be applied to any team? So start looking for a team with a 0.000 score behind their name…
Total bias un-weighted
| TOTAL BIAS | Un-Weighted | Nr Games | |
| 1 | QPR | 6,000 | 6 |
| 2 | STOKE | 5,750 | 8 |
| 3 | FULHAM | 3,600 | 10 |
| 4 | MAN U | 3,469 | 32 |
| 5 | LIVERPOOL | 2,300 | 20 |
| 6 | BOLTON | 1,500 | 10 |
| 7 | TOTTENHAM | 1,477 | 21 |
| 8 | NORWICH | 1,273 | 11 |
| 9 | NEWCASTLE | 1,249 | 16 |
| 10 | SWANSEA | 0,625 | 8 |
| 11 | BLACKBURN | 0,400 | 10 |
| 12 | CHELSEA | 0,375 | 32 |
| 13 | EVERTON | 0,333 | 12 |
| 14 | WOLVES | 0,125 | 8 |
| 15 | WIGAN | -0,125 | 8 |
| 16 | MAN C | -0,282 | 32 |
| 17 | ASTON VILLA | -0,500 | 6 |
| 18 | SUNDERLAND | -0,858 | 14 |
| 19 | WBA | -3,332 | 6 |
| 20 | ARSENAL | -9,158 | 38 |
Well if you are here you will have found no 0.000 score. But what did we find?
Well we have found 14 teams with a positive bias in total. And 6 teams with a negative bias overall.
QPR was the team that got the most benefit in the games we reviewed. In second place we find Stoke. And Fulham came in third place in our numbers. So those are the top 3 when it comes to getting the benefit of the doubt from the refs when the refs make mistakes.
In 4th place we find Manchester United. They are the top team that gets most things going their way. Liverpool is coming close behind United. Tottenham also didn’t do too bad with 7th place. Chelsea got a slight positive bias and ended up in 12th place.
Last years champions Manchester City are in the red zone and had a negative bias that made them end in place 16.
The 3 worst treated teams are Sunderland, West Bromwich Albion and Arsenal.
Let us now see what happens if we put the weight on the decisions.
Home Bias Weighted
| Home bias | Weighted | +/- Average | |
| 1 | QPR | 18,667 | 16,048 |
| 2 | STOKE | 8,800 | 6,181 |
| 3 | MAN U | 7,647 | 5,028 |
| 4 | ASTON VILLA | 7,500 | 4,881 |
| 5 | FULHAM | 7,000 | 4,381 |
| 6 | NEWCASTLE | 6,000 | 3,381 |
| 7 | TOTTENHAM | 5,800 | 3,181 |
| 8 | LIVERPOOL | 4,909 | 2,290 |
| 9 | WBA | 4,000 | 1,381 |
| 10 | WIGAN | 4,000 | 1,381 |
| 11 | BLACKBURN | 4,000 | 1,381 |
| 12 | BOLTON | 3,666 | 1,047 |
| 13 | MAN C | 3,499 | 0,880 |
| 14 | NORWICH | 2,666 | 0,047 |
| 15 | SWANSEA | 2,500 | -0,119 |
| 16 | CHELSEA | 2,401 | -0,218 |
| 17 | EVERTON | 2,287 | -0,332 |
| 18 | WOLVES | 2,250 | -0,369 |
| 19 | SUNDERLAND | -1,000 | -3,619 |
| 20 | ARSENAL | -12,632 | -15,251 |
QPR remains the big benefactor of the wrong decisions. The score they got at home is blowing the roof of the building. It really was an amazing discovery. As was Stoke who even manage to come in second place ahead of Manchester United when we put weight on the decisions.
This clearly shows that the bias Stoke received was one in the big decisions and not just in the smaller decisions. In 3rd place we find Manchester United.
We had 18 teams with a positive weighted home bias in the PL last season. But if we look at the average home bias we notice that only 14 of them did better than the league average.
The two teams with an overall negative home bias were Sunderland and Arsenal. And the teams with a negative bias score compared to the overall league average are Swansea, Chelsea, Everton, Wolverhampton, Sunderland and Arsenal.
Those 6 teams didn’t get what they are entitled to if we can believe the league average.
Let us go away from home.
Away bias Weighted
| Away Bias | Weighted | +/- Average | |
| 1 | STOKE | 9,333 | 11,952 |
| 2 | NORWICH | 3,200 | 5,819 |
| 3 | SUNDERLAND | 1,750 | 4,369 |
| 4 | QPR | 1,600 | 4,219 |
| 5 | FULHAM | 1,500 | 4,119 |
| 6 | MAN U | 1,333 | 3,952 |
| 7 | BOLTON | 1,250 | 3,869 |
| 8 | LIVERPOOL | 0,889 | 3,508 |
| 9 | TOTTENHAM | -0,637 | 1,982 |
| 10 | EVERTON | -1,200 | 1,419 |
| 11 | CHELSEA | -1,588 | 1,031 |
| 12 | BLACKBURN | -1,834 | 0,785 |
| 13 | NEWCASTLE | -2,125 | 0,494 |
| 14 | SWANSEA | -2,500 | 0,119 |
| 15 | WOLVES | -2,500 | 0,119 |
| 16 | WIGAN | -4,250 | -1,631 |
| 17 | MAN C | -4,687 | -2,068 |
| 18 | ASTON VILLA | -5,250 | -2,631 |
| 19 | WBA | -9,000 | -6,381 |
| 20 | ARSENAL | -14,422 | -11,803 |
And now we get once again a change in place. This time Stoke takes first place. So once again the away bias in favour of Stoke was really astonishing!
In second place we now find Norwich and in third place we find …Sunderland. Sunderland who had the second lowest home bias (a negative remember) is having the third highest away bias in the league! Amazing twist that one.
QPR the champions of the home bias are only in 4th place away from home.
What also is a bit amazing is the fact that Manchester United drops in this table to 6th place. Don’t worry they still have a positive away bias. It’s not that the referees have deserted them completely. But the difference between home and away looks big. The influence of Old Trafford?
In this table 8 teams had a positive bias (and normally it would have been a negative one) and 12 teams had a negative bias against them. But if we look at the league average we see that 15 teams score better than the league average away from home.
The 5 teams who suffer most away from home are: Wigan, Manchester City, Aston Villa, West Bromwich Albion and Arsenal. West Bromwich Albion has also been very bad treated away from home it seems.
And once again let us now put those numbers together and try to see if there is one team in the PL that can say : “it evens out”. Without further hesitation let us take a look at this last table: the total weighted bias table.
Total bias Weighted
| TOTAL BIAS | Weighted | Nr Games | |
| 1 | STOKE | 9,000 | 8 |
| 2 | QPR | 8,000 | 6 |
| 3 | FULHAM | 4,800 | 10 |
| 4 | MAN U | 4,687 | 32 |
| 5 | LIVERPOOL | 3,100 | 20 |
| 6 | NORWICH | 2,910 | 11 |
| 7 | BOLTON | 2,700 | 10 |
| 8 | TOTTENHAM | 2,429 | 21 |
| 9 | NEWCASTLE | 1,937 | 16 |
| 10 | EVERTON | 0,834 | 12 |
| 11 | SUNDERLAND | 0,570 | 14 |
| 12 | BLACKBURN | 0,500 | 10 |
| 13 | CHELSEA | 0,282 | 32 |
| 14 | SWANSEA | 0,000 | 8 |
| 15 | WIGAN | -0,125 | 8 |
| 16 | WOLVES | -0,125 | 8 |
| 17 | MAN C | -0,595 | 32 |
| 18 | ASTON VILLA | -0,999 | 6 |
| 19 | WBA | -4,667 | 6 |
| 20 | ARSENAL | -13,527 | 38 |
And goodness me… just look at position 14… Swansea. They have made it! They have done it!
Ladies and gentleman, Swansea is the only team in the PL that could say: what is the fuss all about? It evens out at the end. In a way this is an utterly amazing result of course. And one that shows that it can be done. Should we all rise up and give a standing ovation to the PGMOL for this result? Well before we do that let us just think about those other 19 teams that don’t have the chance to say: it evens out. So just stay in your seat.
The team that has got the most decisions their way in the PL this season is Stoke. Stoke can carry the title of “most favoured team by the refs in 2011-2012″. After a very long neck on neck race they have beaten QPR with one point difference.
In third place came Fulham who just took this place from Manchester United.
Much to my and maybe to many surprise those 3 teams got the most beneficial decisions from the refs.
But Manchester United is the first top club in this table. Just beating Liverpool who came in 5th place. The next in the list of the teams that were in contention for a CL place is Tottenham Hotspur in 8th place. Just in front of Newcastle that came 9th.
Chelsea the next top team on the list only came in 13th place.
And the league winners of last season Manchester City only comes in 17th place.
And the team that made the big turnaround of the season. Going from place 17 after 3 games to place 3 after 38 games…had not only to fight their opponents but had to overcome a very clear bias from the referees.
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This is the last article in which we showed you an overview of all the league tables about the decisions from the refs.
But don’t worry we have more to come in our review. We now will take on each ref in our series. And at the end of this you will be able to see who was the best ref in the season 2011-2012.
Editorial Footnote: Occasionally readers wish to make the point that our figures or methods are themselves fixed or biased. If you have such a view and wish to argue that point please do take a look at our article on data and conclusions first.
If you want to read some other articles about the refs in the last season, you can take a look over here