Ten points from Tottenham – will we overtake our rivals? « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade

By Phil Gregory

From early on this season, it became clear that 2011-12 for Arsenal would be a matter of damage limitation: bed in the numerous new recruits, regroup and push on to secure that vital top four berth, with the title realistically not attainable this year.

The great run we went on after our dire start to the season restored hopes of a respectable finish to the season, and put us within touching distance of the top four, as well as – if we’re frank about this – rivals Tottenham. It has been so long since Tottenham finished above us in the league that maintaining that happy North London balance of power is a seasonal objective in itself. After our great run of games, we closed in substantially on them, and it seemed only a matter of time until Tottenham broke down and we overtook them. Unfortunately it didn’t quite work out that way, and after three consecutive defeats the gap has loomed to ten points from Spurs, and five from fourth place. Clearly, our run of losses is partly our own fault – we were outplayed by United and Swansea – but a crippling injury list had a big role to play too. If we can expect to kick on and close what is substantial gap to the Spurs with over half the season gone, our injury situation needs to improve, and pronto.

The injuries are hitting us hardest in defence, so it makes sense to have a quick look at those first. Kieran Gibbs is a couple of weeks away , but given his injury record and lack of serious game time over the last couple of seasons I’m not convinced he’ll have a big role to play for us during the run in unfortunately. Much more important is the injury to Andre Santos, but Wenger’s recent press conference had the Brazilian two months away from fitness. Being realistic, we’re likely to have our best centreback (Vermaelen) at left back for the majority of the remainder of the campaign. While our defence would be stronger with Vermaelen at centreback, the pairing of Koscielny and Mertesacker are doing well, so we can deal with this situation adequately, but I can’t look at our left back situation and really expect it to improve much over the rest of the season.

Djourou at right back has arguably looked much less comfortable than Vermaelen on the opposite flank, so Sagna or Jenkinson’s returns here would be very welcome. Unfortunately Jenkinson is still three weeks away, with Sagna perhaps two. If the French international can be back in the first team squad in two weeks, that would certainly be a welcome boost and of huge benefit for the run in.

Jack Wilshere should be involved from the end of February, but given the length of his absence expecting the youngster to have a big impact straight away would be foolish. Come late February, when the Champions League and Premier League games are coming thick and fast, another quality player in the middle could be a real help for us though. In the short term, Coquelin and Arteta should be back soon, the latter particularly needed to restore balance to our midfield.

On the whole then, I’m expecting things to stay much as they are on the left hand side of defence, but we’ll be stronger at right back for the run in and in midfield.  Will that be enough to crack the top four, and haul in ten points on Spurs?

Potentially. Tottenham have some very tricky fixtures coming up, so all is not lost just yet. That said we also need to raise our game. Wins away at Bolton and home to Blackburn are absolutely vital if we are to gain the confidence to travel away to revitalised Sunderland side and pick up the spoils. That game is then followed by the Tottenham match at the Emirates, which is undeniably a game we have to win. During that run of games for us, Tottenham travel away to Wigan and Liverpool as well as having to host Newcastle, so we can expect the gap to close somewhat before Spurs are at the Emirates. Ultimately though, it all comes down to getting the results. We’re too far into the season to rely on Spurs continually dropping points, we have to get at least seven points from Bolton, Blackburn and Sunderland. Even then, Spurs could afford to draw at Anfield and beat Newcastle at home to maintain the gap – the points at Wigan are surely virtually guaranteed? – and then they can afford to play for the draw at the Emirates.

A ten point gap is a big number to overturn, but playing Spurs at home gives us an opportunity. Suffice to say, I expect it’ll be clear come to end of February whether we’ll be finishing above our rivals this season.