Sunday, June 3rd, 2012 « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade

In the week that he might have thought could end with him taking England to the Euros, H. Redknapp Esq. might be forgiven if he is looking over his shoulder.   With one year left on his contract he is said to want three more after that.  Daniel Levy is reluctant, according to press stories.

A while ago I wrote bemoaning the fact that while on Arsenal sites we have a number of people who are very much against the manager (see for background The AAA), at Tottenham everyone is generally quite happy with Mr Redknapp.

The post I wrote produced a fair number of replies from Tottenham supporters, and while many were full of the usual banter (no problem with that of course) there were some who seriously addressed the issue and suggested that there were many fans who were far from happy with their current managers.

This is interesting, because before 2009/10 Tottenham did not often appear in the top four – and yet they have done so twice in the last three seasons.  Indeed as recently as 2004 Tottenham finished 14th in the EPL.  (There is an analysis of the recent comparative positions between Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea on the Arsenal History Society blog in case this kind of thing interests you.)

So it is interesting that now there are a few reports hither and yon suggesting that there are concerns not only from supporters of the club but also from within the boardroom.  Of course I haven’t got a clue if this is true or not – I find it hard enough to work out exactly what’s what in terms of Arsenal and what the AAA are thinking, without trying to do the same with Tottenham, but the press are starting to make the point that all is not well near the WHL railway station.   And that is interesting because I always thought that Mr Redknapp was the darling of the press and TV in the way that Mr Wenger never has been.

The fact is that while, as is the nature of football support, Arsenal fans celebrated the disappointment that Tottenham had with Chelsea winning the Champs League, this was hardly Tottenham’s fault, and a move up to 4th, 5th and 4th for the last three years is way above 8th, 11th, 5th for the three years before.

But it seems that, just as many of the AAA want success now at any price, so the Tottenham board might be turning in that direction.  It is indeed the problem of success; any improvement demands another improvement, any win demands another win, until eventually there are just too many teams trying for too few places at the top.

The fact is that Tottenham may have been planning for the Champions’ League – and if that is so it was rather silly, because no one is guaranteed a top four finish – not even Chelsea who have more money to spend than Tottenham.

The point is that Tottenham might have got a lot more money had they got into the Champs League – £30million is quoted in some quarters – and if they were banking on that, then they have a problem.  (It is also incidentally why Arsenal don’t spend everything they have and then some.  Clubs have failed through that arrangement, and Arsenal don’t intend to do that.)

Plus, at the Tottenham end of 7 Sisters, there is the story that players demand Champs League appearances to enhance their career.  So Luka Modric and Gareth Bale might decide to fly the coop, and others might be less keen on coming (although Mr Adebayor says he wants to make the move permanent and I guess after his stamp on the face of Robin van Persie, most Arsenal fans would suggest that Tottenham are welcome to him.)

Perhaps Tottenham’s problem is the fact that they were almost there – right until March, by which time Mr Redknapp was the favourite to take over England.   He even survived revealing himself to be dyscalculic in his court case – something which fascinated me since my company owns The Dyscalculia Centre.  We were hoping he might come along for an on-line test, but I don’t think he did.  More to the point, he survived losing a 2-0 lead and turning it into a 5-2 defeat, although to be fair he clearly saw it coming, the way he changed the team at half time.

But maybe it was the comments he made after the season was over.   “Top four, I couldn’t be more pleased.  It’s been a great season. We’ve played some fantastic football. We’d love to have finished third, but over the season I don’t think you could ask for a lot more than finishing fourth.”

But in saying that he forgot about his suggestion that the club could come top – although to be fair all managers make claims.  Mr Wenger famously claimed that his team could go the whole season unbeaten, and we then lost the next match, encouraging Man U supporters to bring out an anti-Wenger t-shirt.  I still have mine – it came in handy the following season.

Also there was the problem with Mr Redknapp’s subsequent claims (not so long after say they could win the league) that he didn’t have a deep enough squad to challenge for the league – a comment he made after their defeat to QPR.  That didn’t go down well, because of the fact that he had been manager since 2008 and so should have got that sorted.

What’s more although all managers make bad signings, some of them (such as Bentley) looked really rather silly from the advantage of a historic perspective especially when the club making the profit were Arsenal (who got a lot of dosh from the sell-on clause).

My point here is that Arsenal too have players on their books at all times who have ultimately proved not to be suitable for the first team – every club has loads of them.  The issue is whether they cost a lot of money in the first place.  Pavlyuchenko, Hutton, Kranjcar, Corluka, Palacios… I don’t think there is an equivalent scenario at Arsenal.

Managers have to talk big, but also have to manage expectations, and that is also a problem at all clubs.  And fans of Arsenal and Tottenham are both, it seems, demanding more success.  Tottenham have had 14 managers and 8 caretaker managers since 1984 (and that is counting the dual management they had on four occasions in that period as one each, not two).  So maybe that is the core problem.

If that churn of management is the problem, then it is strange that some people want both Arsenal and Tottenham to change managers now – although Arsenal can hardly be accused of churn since in the same period Arsenal have had four managers and three caretakers.

Perhaps the deepest problem is that only four teams can get into the Champions League which is where all the money is.  And if we look at those lining up, it is clear how tough this is…

• Man C
• Man U
• Arsenal
• Chelsea

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• Tottenham
• Liverpool
• Newcastle

In one sense it doesn’t look tough – there are only three serious contenders who could spend the money and make it up to the next level, and I remain unsure about how much spare money Man U has.  But, it is more than that, because one of the top four has to slip backwards rather than make progress to allow one of the others to step up.

Now Tottenham fans ought to be resting easy because the AAA are certain that Arsenal are in terminal decline.  They cite our “terrible” defensive record and the “gap” between us and the top two.  But then curiously some Tottenham fans cite crises in their club and see decline ahead.  Maybe that should make Liverpool fans happy – except that they ended up closer to relegation than the top of the league last season.

Mr Redknapp has always seemed to me to be a wheeler dealer who can make good deals – although with an unfortunate history in clubs he has left behind going into administration (Bournemouth, West Ham, Portsmouth, Southampton, Portsmouth).  But surely that must all be a coincidence).

So where next?  More Mr Redknapp, or someone new?  And if someone new – is there a lot of money around to buy all the players that are wanted?   That surely is the question, because as Liverpool found out in their negotiations, every new manager wants a big budget.  And the bigger the manager the bigger the budget required.

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