Shots, goals… the untold statistics machine keeps on rolling – part 2 « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News, supporting the club, the players and the manager

By Walter Broeckx

After my first article on shots and goals  I will try to see at what possible shot gives you more chance of  success on scoring goals. And so I come up with the next table I made from last season.

It gives you a comparison between the % of shots taken and the % of goals that came from this shooting. I hope this table can give us some more insight in the difference between a shot and the goals.

Shots/Goals 10-11	SHOTS%  6 yard	GOALS %	SHOTS % 18 yard	GOALS %	SHOTS % Outside	GOALS %
Chelsea	9%	26,09%	50%	62,32%	41%	11,59%
Manchester United	9%	29,49%	52%	61,54%	39%	8,97%
Arsenal	9%	25,00%	59%	68,06%	32%	6,94%
Manchester City	6%	18,33%	51%	65,00%	42%	16,67%
Tottenham	7%	18,18%	46%	54,55%	48%	27,27%
Liverpool	9%	23,73%	52%	67,80%	39%	8,47%
Fulham	6%	20,41%	50%	63,27%	44%	16,33%
Bolton	9%	26,92%	49%	55,77%	41%	17,31%
Aston Villa	10%	31,25%	53%	56,25%	37%	12,50%
Everton	8%	23,53%	52%	60,78%	39%	15,69%
Newcastle	12%	37,50%	56%	55,36%	32%	7,14%
Wigan	6%	20,00%	47%	57,50%	47%	22,50%
West Ham	6%	20,93%	50%	67,44%	44%	11,63%
Sunderland	5%	22,22%	48%	66,67%	47%	11,11%
Blackpool	12%	0,00%	43%	0,00%	44%	0,00%
West Bromwich	8%	0,00%	48%	0,00%	43%	0,00%
Stoke	15%	43,48%	53%	47,83%	32%	8,70%
Blackburn	11%	28,26%	57%	56,52%	32%	15,22%
Wolverhampton	11%	32,61%	49%	56,52%	40%	10,87%
Birmingham	11%	40,54%	45%	51,35%	44%	8,11%
Total
Average	8,95	27,14%	50,5	59,70%	40,35	13,17%

And then we see that with only some 9% of the shots taken from within the 6 yard box it leads to 27% of the goals scored.

Shooting from within the penalty area is also very profitable as half of the shots are taken from within that distance and this leads to almost 6 goals in 10.

Shooting from a distance can bring you spectacular goals but in fact some 40% of the shots are taken from outside the penalty area but the chance of success is rather low as only 13% find the back of the net. Now we all like to see them hitting the net from that distance but  it is a rather unsuccessful way of trying to score, except for Tottenham and even then a lot of their attempts brings you nothing. And I wonder if the Arsenal players have been told this and this could lead to them not attempting it that much and rather try to come closer to the goal?

So statistically one could say that the best way to score more goals is by putting the ball in the 6 yard box and hoping for the tap in from close range. But most goals are made from a slightly further distance.  Shooting from outside the penalty area is not the best way to be successful but I would never suggest it is not tried every now and then.

To make this a bit clearer I have put this analysis in to different tables and so you can have a look at the difference in % for each team and that total of the whole EPL.

Shots/Goals 10-11	SHOTS%  6 yard	GOALS %	Success
Chelsea	9	26	17
Manchester United	9	29	20
Arsenal	9	25	16
Manchester City	6	18	12
Tottenham	7	18	11
Liverpool	9	24	15
Fulham	6	20	14
Bolton	9	27	18
Aston Villa	10	31	21
Everton	8	24	16
Newcastle	12	38	26
Wigan	6	20	14
West Ham	6	21	15
Sunderland	5	22	17
Stoke	15	43	28
Blackburn	11	28	17
Wolverhampton	11	33	22
Birmingham	11	41	30
Total
Average	8,95	27,11	18,16
Average	8,95%	27,11%	302.92%

And so you can see that for the shots from close range the possibility of scoring goes up very high. And the teams that made the most of their attempts from close range are Stoke and much to my surprise Birmingham comes on top of this.  But it didn’t help them to stay in the EPL.

Shots/Goals 10-11	SHOTS %  18 yard	GOALS %	succes
Chelsea	50	62	12
Manchester United	52	62	10
Arsenal	59	68	9
Manchester City	51	65	14
Tottenham	46	55	9
Liverpool	52	68	16
Fulham	50	63	13
Bolton	49	56	7
Aston Villa	53	56	3
Everton	52	61	9
Newcastle	56	55	-1
Wigan	47	58	11
West Ham	50	67	17
Sunderland	48	67	19
Stoke	53	48	-5
Blackburn	57	57	0
Wolverhampton	49	57	8
Birmingham	45	51	6
Total
Average	50,5	60,00	9,5
Average	50,50%	60,00%	118.81%

For the shooting from within the 18 yard box the numbers still indicate that it is worth taking the shot. In this table we can see 2 teams with an negative number when comparing shots and goals from within the penalty area. Stoke and Newcastle have more attempts then goals. Blackburn is a team that has the same % of shots and goals.

Shots/Goals 10-11	SHOTS % Outside	GOALS %	succes
Chelsea	41	12	-29
Manchester United	39	9	-30
Arsenal	32	7	-25
Manchester City	42	17	-25
Tottenham	48	27	-21
Liverpool	39	8	-31
Fulham	44	16	-28
Bolton	41	17	-24
Aston Villa	37	13	-24
Everton	39	16	-23
Newcastle	32	7	-25
Wigan	47	23	-24
West Ham	44	12	-32
Sunderland	47	11	-36
Stoke	32	9	-23
Blackburn	32	15	-17
Wolverhampton	40	11	-29
Birmingham	44	8	-36
Total
Average	40,35	13,00	-27,35
Average	40,35%	13,00%	32.22%

And as for shooting from a distance it shows that the chance of scoring goes down a lot. And this is the same for all teams including Tottenham. Arsenal have the worst record together with Newcastle in this.

So calling for a player to shoot from halfway in the opposite half is not the wisest thing to do when you look at those statistics. But I do admit there is no better feeling than to see the ball hit the net after having taken a shot from the distance. But the problem is most of the shots taken from afar don’t hit the back of the net.

If you are still in for more I will try to have a look in the same way at the goals scored against us in the next days.

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Note: As you know we accept articles from people who want to write for Untold. For the moment Tony Attwood is enjoying a holiday and will not be able to come online.  So if you have written an article and there is no hurry to see it published you can send it to the usual mail address. If you want to see it published in the next days you can send it to my mail address  walterbroeckx(at)hotmail.com and then we can see that it gets published as soon as possible.

Walter