Saturday, February 26th, 2011 « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade

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By Phil Gregory

Carling Cup final day is upon us, and with it  I should really be nice in my words about Birmingham in this match preview knowing that certain die-hard Blues fans are reading this preview. That said, the chance for a quick laugh at this lovely little video. I half-expected the narrator to launch into a Churchillian “we shall fight them on the beaches” at one point, but what’re you going to do.

The tie doesn’t need much background really. It’s a day in the footballing sun for a respectable Premier League side who aren’t often challenging for silverware at Wembley, while Arsenal’s own trophy drought is well-documented. I don’t often sign up to much of the amateur psychology you read in the sports pages, but I do believe that Arsenal’s transitional seasons in which we blooded youngsters have cost us somewhat in terms of the “win or die” mentality that was a trademark of Wenger’s title-winning sides, and of course the Frenchman himself. For a team challenging for the Premier League title, the Carling Cup isn’t the most important of trophies, but the experience of winning is one our team can lack and this is a great opportunity to rectify that.

The injury news dominating the headlines is of course that of Cesc Fabregas’ minor hamstring injury. The boss expects it to keep him out for one or two games which, if it includes the Final, will mean he is back in action much sooner than most could have hoped. Naturally a degree of caution is advised given the increasing frequency of these hamstring injuries but having him available for the Champions League second leg and the Premier League run-in would be a big boost. Theo Walcott has also been ruled out with an ankle sprain which curtailed his involvement in the Stoke tie. Long term absentees include Emmanuel Frimpong, Thomas Vermaelen and Lukasz Fabianksi.

On a more positive note, Koscielny and Van Persie are back in the fold after a midweek absence, as is Abou Diaby after a calf injury. The latter two will almost certainly be called straight back into the starting line-up.

For Birmingham, ex-Gunner David Bentley is cup-tied along with centre back Curtis Davies. Alexander Hleb is a doubt with a knee injury and faces a late fitness test. Jiranek and Ridgewell are back in contention for the Blues though centre back Scott Dann is out with a long-term injury.

Birmingham aren’t a side that hold many surprises, our players can imagine fairly well what they’re going to get when they step out on the pitch. A frankly thuggish approach to the game at times didn’t stop us romping to a three nil victory at St Andrews on New Years Day.  Fortunately in the aftermath of that win Lee Bowyer got a three match ban for a stamp on Sagna but there were certainly other incidents in the game that weren’t dealt with by the ref.

Indeed it was Birmingham at the Emirates that Jack Wilshere got sent off against for a dangerous challenge. Naturally everyone rounded on this as an opportunity to slam Arsenal for not being whiter than white, but frankly Jack was kicked all game. While that’s no justification for putting another professionals safety at risk, unless referees start dealing with offences players are going to react. Mike Dean isn’t the best of referees at dealing with this (or indeed any) aspect of the Laws of the Game as has been excellently pointed out by Walter in his article on this site yesterday.

Line-up:

Szcznesy

Sagna Djourou Koscielny Clichy

Song Denilson

Wilshere

Nasri Van Persie Arshavin

Szcznesy continues as #1, with his commanding and aggressive style of goalkeeping well suited to a tie against Birmingham. The back four is strengthened by the return from injury of Koscielny alongside Djourou at centre back, with the ever-present Clichy and Sagna at fullback.

Given Cesc Fabregas’ injury, I’m anticipating the midfield to be reshuffled slightly. While Wenger may be loathe to break the Song-Wilshere axis which has gelled admirably in front of the defence, recent comments from Arsène suggest that Wilshere may be moved further forward in lieu of Fabregas.  The boss is quoted on Arsenal.com on Saturday morning saying “the game will go through Wilshere” and it would be a testament to the youngster’s progress if he was given the role in stead of Czech Republic international Rosicky. Jack can certainly play a role further forward and has the physicality to deal with being in closer proximity to an opponent’s holding midfielders than he would if he played deeper.

That’ll mean Denilson comes into the side. Not a popular figure amongst Arsenal fans, many underestimate his ability to use the ball well and move it on efficiently. With Song providing the grit in the midfield battle, Denilson will be a useful outlet as well as mopping up via interceptions. Some might expect the stronger frame of Diaby to be favoured, but given the large Wembley pitch and the France international’s recent return from injury I expect him to start on the bench.

Further forward Theo Walcott’s injury will force Wenger to make changes. I expect Nasri to switch to the right, with Arshavin playing on the left. The return of Van Persie from injury sees the Dutchman restored to centre forward. Missing the creativity of Cesc Fabregas will place more of a burden on Robin to assist in the build up of our attacks.

From a tactical point of view, we mostly know what to expect. Birmingham play the second highest number of long balls in the Premier League (after good old Stoke City) so they’ll largely bypass the midfield. This makes sense from their point of view: they have pace in their attack (particularly with  the inclusion of Obafemi Martins) and will want to take advantage of the space in behind our back four with searching balls forward.

Moreover, with us going with three midfielders as well as possessing  better individuals, they know they are going to struggle to win the midfield battle. Short of playing a fairly narrow midfield four, with the right and leftmost players helping out in the middle, I can’t see how they’ll really dominate the centre of the park. The temptation for Mcleish will probably be to go for a 451 but then he sacrifices his attack and (unless his wide midfielders are very narrow) will still not have the man advantage in midfield.

Playing narrow would be dangerous, as we’d just send our fullbacks flying down the flanks and then have a 2v1 situation versus their fullbacks. A 442 would make sense, balls over the top non the counter attack looking to take advantage of space. It might also force our fullbacks to play more conservatively, given they’ll be conscious of leaving too much space in behind.

We’ll have to be quick with our pressing and cut down their forward passing options. Birmingham aren’t a brilliant side on the ball, and if we can prevent them from launching it forwards we’ll probably pick up misplaced passes if they are made to knock it around. The whole team will have to push high up the pitch and press them effectively all the while being aware of the long ball in behind. This will take advantage of their weakness on the ball and limit their possession.

I’m going for a 3-1 to the Arsenal. The large, open pitch will work to our benefit and it’ll be hard for Birmingham to play as narrowly as they would like. The space will be great for our creative players, and it’ll be up to players such as Wilshere, Nasri, Van Persie and Arshavin to make sure we don’t feel the loss of Fabregas too keenly.