Refwatch – Chelsea Vs. Arsenal (29/10/2011 – 12:45) « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
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- Referee: Andre Marriner
- Assistant 1: Scott Ledger
- Assistant 2: Adam Watts
- 4th Official: Howard Webb
Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… apologies for the lack of RefWatch last EPL match day – we woz being repressed – but I did do one and not only was it astoundingly accurate – it was also really very witty.
So what do we have here then… another non-3pm game? I would say that this is the stand out fixture of the day with high exposure – so let’s hope it can work for us this time eh!? Anyone know what the odds are?
Tell you what – I’ll check… as it stands at the moment Asian Bookie tells me that Chelsea are giving one i.e. the Asian Handicap is 1 goal against Chelsea as the bookies at the moment reckon that’s how much better than us they are – this is a round ball game (no half or quater balls here) so it’s going to pull some money in!
Odds breakdown:
Buy Chelsea [to win by 2 or more] pays 2.05
Buy Arsenal [to draw or win] pays 1.85
If Chelsea win by one then all bets are refunded and nobody gets paid.
Let’s have a look at the Referee:
- Full name: Andre Marriner
- Date of birth: 01-Jan-1971 (Age 40)
- Place of birth: Birmingham
- Resides: West Midlands
- EPL Referee Since: 2004/2005
- EPL Games to date: 117
Vermaelen drives a Nissan Fiiiiiiggaro…
It’s Andre Marriner again… you remember him; he’s the one that gave Liverpool 8 minutes injury time to upset our title challenge last season… then another 3 minutes on top of that just to be sure.
Let’s check out his stats!
Andre Marriner has had 11 games for Chelsea consisting of 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses.
Chelsea are currently in 3rd in Andre Marriner’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an average of 1.91 PPG.
In Andre Marriner’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Chelsea come 6th with an average positive swing of 0.18.
Chelsea are currently in 5th in Andre Marriner’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an overall average of 1.55 BPM.
In Andre Marriner’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Chelsea come 13th with an overall average of 6.53 FPB.
We can see from the blue line on graph (above) that Chelsea have done quite well, in terms of PPG, under Andre up until the 2010/2011 season the 2007/2008 season was a in AHS terms also an under performance but nothing like as bad as 2010/2011. The FPB/BPM stats are slightly curious also in that Chelsea’s opposition look to get away with more in the Challenge than Chelsea – look at the 2008/2009 season where they got away with around 20 FPB and were hardly booked at all.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Chelsea took their bookings under Andre Marriner – you can see Marriner is trending to earlier bookings throughout the defence, midfield and attack.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Chelsea’s opposition took their bookings under Andre Marriner – now this is interesting, if we look to the 2009/2010 season (Chelsea’s best season so far under Marriner) we can see that he booked a lot the opposition’s defenders in the first half – other than that the bookings against Chelsea’s opposition look very late in the game, look at the midfield [red] line, you can see that they all average out in the final 10 minutes of the game.
Let’s move on now and see how Arsenal get on with Andre.
Andre Marriner has had 10 games for Arsenal consisting of 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses.
Arsenal are currently in 2nd in Andre Marriner’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an average of 2.00 PPG.
In Andre Marriner’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Arsenal come 5th with an average positive swing of 0.25.
Arsenal are currently in 1st in Andre Marriner’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an overall average of 1.00 BPM.
In Andre Marriner’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Arsenal come 1st with an overall average of 10.50 FPB.
Looking first at our performance in the above graph we can see that we have already played a game under Marriner this season and lost – that was the Blackburn away fixture. Other than that our AHS/PPG figures don’t look too bad, although we did show an underperformance in the 2009/2010 season. At a glance, our FPB/BPM figures also look ok – in that we get booked less and commit more fouls than our opposition.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took their bookings under Andre Marriner. We can see that recently we are trending to later bookings under Andre Marriner and curiously he seems to have developed a thing for booking substitutes under the last two seasons.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took their bookings under Andre Marriner. OK, we can see just how many more booking’s our opposition have taken under Marriner, there have been fat lines through the midfield and defence which were trending more and earlier until this season where they take a dive… and there’s that curious substitute booking thing again?
Let’s move on now to check out how Andre Marriner performs against selected teams in the EPL:
The stand out performers under Marriner are Manchester United – the zero point in 2007/2008 exists only because he had no games for them that season.
The Predictortron gives Chelsea a 0.383333 of a goal advantage… so hopefully we can come away from this with something.