RefWatch – Bolton Wanderers Vs Arsenal (01/02/2012 – 20:00) « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
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- Referee: Chris Foy
- Assistant 1: Gary Beswick
- Assistant 2: Simon Bennett
- 4th Official: Peter Walton
Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… and oh man what a week it has been – I have been knee deep in data again and working with Walter and writing software to import his Ref Review data into a database.
Phase 1 is complete on this but it’s taken up pretty much every minute of my spare time. On the plus side we now have an untold Ref Review article table generator that is 100% data driven AND I now have something I can start to model into the Ref Watch series… on the minus side I haven’t had much time to knock this article up and, quite frankly, I’m feeling a bit burnt out.
Let’s check out the markets; not that it matters that much this time as we are playing midweek in a group of other matches and the big players that could influence the major markets are all spending time with their family celebrating the lunar year of the dragon.
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Let’s have a look at the Referee:
- Full name: Christopher J Foy
- Date of birth: 20-Nov-1962 (Age 50)
- Place of birth: St. Helens, Lancashire
- Resides: Merseyside
- EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2000/2001
- EPL/ECH Games to date: 240
Ooh stick you; your mama too… and your daddy
It’s Chris Foy again… look at that – no FIFA badge, that’s a good start – you remember him from the excellent Ref Review series:
Let’s check out his stats!
Chris Foy has had 25 games for Bolton Wanderers consisting of 7 wins, 4 draws and 14 losses.
Bolton Wanderers are currently in 25th in Chris Foy’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.00 PPG.
In Chris Foy’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Bolton Wanderers come 16th with an average negative swing of -0.08.
Bolton Wanderers are currently in 21st in Chris Foy’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.48 BPM.
In Chris Foy’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Bolton Wanderers come 14th with an overall average of 8.49 FPB.
Bolton have had a very poor run of form under Chris Foy and it’s just getting worse, we can also see from the graph [above] that Chris Foy is taking a more punitive approach to Bolton to that of their opposition and this seems to correlate directly with their form which dwindles to nothing this season.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Bolton Wanderers took all their bookings under Chris Foy.
Again we can see a clear trend over the last few seasons in that Bolton are taking more bookings in the midfield and steadily earlier in the match. This could be a result of the tactic of ‘rotational fouling’ that we have seen and certain referee’s getting wise to it?
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Bolton Wanderers’s opposition took all their bookings under Chris Foy.
Booking’s to Bolton’s opposition under Chris Foy are trending later and fewer – this season there have been a few in the midfield averaging out around the 80 minute mark.
Chris Foy has had 18 games for Arsenal consisting of 16 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Arsenal are currently in 1st in Chris Foy’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 2.72 PPG.
In Chris Foy’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 9th with an average positive swing of 0.12.
Arsenal are currently in 1st in Chris Foy’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 0.83 BPM.
In Chris Foy’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 6th with an overall average of 11.60 FPB.
Ahh – I like those numbers, 18 games averaging out at 2.72 PPG – what is interesting though is that Arsenal don’t obviously ‘over perform’ under Foy – as you can see, we come 9th in the overall the performance league which is calculated from the betting line handicap.
This, I suspect, leads a lot of Arsenal fans to slag Chris Foy off as, yes, we have had some bad decisions over the years from him and I can recall some matches under this referee that seemed shocking… yet we still won [contrast and compare with the recent form of Phil Dowd] – so, it seems in the statistics at least, he’s not gone out of his way to mug us blind?
All this might explain why this is the PGMOL (with their totally random and transparent selection procedures) have seen fit to make this the FIRST EPL game this season in which we have seen Chris Foy and have ensured that we have had to suffer the likes of Dean, Dowd and Webb and (insert statistically worst case scenario referee name here) umpteen times?
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Chris Foy.
As you can see there are no real trends to speak of other than, overall, are bookings are getting fewer and later on in the game.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Chris Foy.
Overall we are seeing more bookings to our opposition that are across the board in the Midfield, Attack, Defence and some late ones for substitutes too.
Let’s move on now to check out how Chris Foy performs against selected teams in the EPL:
Wow – some massive swings from Chelsea there – Arsenal and Manchester United are both solid performers and both yet to have a game this season… Manchester City are on the up and Bolton are well – not looking so good.
The Predictortron gives Bolton Wanderers a -1.417789 disadvantage… and who am I to argue?