RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Manchester United (22/01/2012 – 16:00) « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
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- Referee: Mike Dean
- Assistant 1: Stuart Burt
- Assistant 2: Adam Watts
- 4th Official: Phil Dowd
Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… What can I say – it’s Mike Dean and Phil Dowd and we all know what that means don’t we?
Well – maybe we do and maybe we don’t – if we look at the bigger picture there are many conflicts of interest in this match with regards to the markets and the potential bias that may exist from the officials.
I mention the markets as, it seems more often than not, we are playing in yet another game that is boiling under the spotlight of maximum black market liquidity – I would estimate something in the region of three billion quid will be swilling around this market… so, I suppose, it’s just as well we have the Cheshire cat and the Staffie in charge of it i.e. men with experience.
I’m particularly interested in this match, not least because I’ll be there, but also because it’s going to be revealing in terms of exactly how it is officiated – the simple perspective is to say that all refs love Manchester United but this is not so. There are, of course, referee’s that do swerve towards Ferguson, others are more Abramovich minded, there’s the curious case of Harry Redknapp – and then there’s the power shift of influence to Manchester City combined with a manager that certainly knows how to park the big golden bus when he’s looking at a hiding to nothing and when to substitute certain players [who, for instance, like to drive around with large sums of cash on the passenger seat of their car] that may or may not be in a goal scoring mood that day… if only Wenger had his information, ruthless cynicism and influence – combined with his football mind and the resources we have he would dominate the game – and that is my only criticism of Arsène Wenger; his faith in football and love for the game… which just goes to show what a fucked up world we live in.
It’s sometimes difficult for me to write these articles as I am aware that there is a certain perception of the game, a certain line that I cannot cross and there are certain things that I cannot say – RefWatch is a work in progress, a project of mine that, as a concept, I have thought through and is the result of years of study – but this is never really how I imagined I’d express what needs to be said… I’m still not entirely convinced that anyone really reads these things but I have noticed stirings and changes in perception creeping in [to the fanbase] which I am sure that I, the rest of the Untold crew and others who will remain nameless, have catalysed in our own small way. Even so – it’s still “ten thousand whisperin’ and nobody listenin’” – but that will change; change is coming and a hard rain’s a-gonna fall.
Football in England is in a very bad shape in terms of its integrity and it has reached the point where this is undeniable – actually, it reached it over Christmas when other leagues were on their winter break all eyes [and markets] turned to the EPL and Portugal with the inevitable brand-tarnishing results (thanks go to Phil Gregory for sending me this link):
It seems that the recession is hitting everyone and times are hard, thrills are cheaper – as your arms get shorter your pockets get deeper.
I know… I’m supposed to be talking about Mike Dean and here I am waffling all this crazy shit about how not all referees are in love With Manchester United and how the weight of money gambled on a match will affect the outcome and all that other stuff… so I’ll get back to it and focus a bit more on the ‘relevant’ areas with a couple of graphs on Dean that I *tweeted* in the week.
It seems that there are two fat streaks of success romping though Mike Dean’s figures and I’m going to have to demonstrate this over two graphs, in each graph I will use 3 entities for clarity.
The first graph is a visual representation of how 3 selected teams fare under Mike Dean:
Now just check out that fat Chelsea streak – and, in case you’ve forgotten, fatness on this graph indicates Points Per Game and position against the handicap (Y Axis) represents relative performance with zero being ‘normal’. Arsenal haven’t got much for a few seasons now from Dean have we? Hmm… Chealsea though have been smashing it under Dean since Abramovich weaved his ‘magic’.
In this second graph, I will demonstrate another rich vein of ‘over performance’. This graph is based on Managers/Referee – but we’ll use Arsenal and Manchester United again for reference (apologies for the colours shifting – it’s alphabetical order I’m afraid):
And here we see the curious case of Harry Redknapp in Mike Dean’s data… what can we deduce from this? We could say that Dean is Abramovich/Redknapp leaning – yes, but – how might this affect this match and what, if any, influence might come from the major players on the one man who effectively controls, with a whistle, a 3 billion pound market? Oh what a tangled web we weave!
Speaking of which – here’s the Asian Handicap (betting line) market:
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.175 | 0 – 0 | 1.725 |
And the Under/Over market:
| Over | Handicap | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.800 | 2 1/2 | 2.100 |
This is a flat market – which is interesting as it’s priced up as there being nothing in it between the two teams and a draw will refund your stake – Arsenal are the long odds at 2.175. So – gut feeling – if you HAD to bet your life savings on one team winning – then pick your team now… and then, as it’s Sunday afternoon, go the other way.
Let’s have a look at the Referee:
- Full name: Mike Leslie Dean
- Date of birth: 02-Jun-1968 (Age 44)
- Place of birth: The Wirral
- Resides: Cheshire
- EPL/ECH Referee Since: 1999/2000
- EPL/ECH Games to date: 308
Mike Dean – Where black is the colour, where none is the number.
It’s Mike Dean again… you remember him from that last RefWatch I did on him – and also the fabulous Ref Reviews from our resident professionals:
Let’s check out his stats!
Mike Dean has had 29 games for Arsenal consisting of 13 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses.
Arsenal are currently in 4th in Mike Dean’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.69 PPG.
In Mike Dean’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 19th with an average negative swing of -0.21.
Arsenal are currently in 22nd in Mike Dean’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 2.00 BPM.
In Mike Dean’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 26th with an overall average of 5.72 FPB.
From the above graph it’s fairly clear to see that Mike Dean has had a punitive streak for Arsenal against their opposition – that is until this season where the orange and red lines have crossed over. The above ‘overall’ summaries are a bit distorted from our time with him pre-2009/2010 where we did ok… since then we have had an appauling run of form – this was about the same time that Mike Riley replaced Keith Hackett as manager of the PGMOL – so feel free to speculate about the synchronicity of that.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Mike Dean.
Of late, most of our bookings have been in the defence and, although our average number of bookings has dropped of late, they have come much earlier in the game – which makes it all much of a muchness. Our Midfield bookings have dropped steadily over the seasons but I’m sure, if Song is starting tomorrow, Mike Dean will address that by flinging a card his way at the first opportunity… I’m being a little facetious now – the early DM card is always a good marker of a tilted pitch – one of DogFace’s top tips for you there to trade against on the in-play.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Mike Dean.
Our opposition’s bookings have been fairly sporadic over the seasons under Dean – but we can see a fat Midfield line trending towards the halfway mark – not much in the defence though… shame – could explain our lack of form though given our penchant for the ‘indirect’ goal i.e. a defence that can do what it takes to break an attack will be more suceptible to a ‘hump it at the big lad’ approach to the game.
Let’s move on now to see how Manchester United fare under the whistle of Mike Dean:
Mike Dean has had 28 games for Manchester United consisting of 18 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses.
Manchester United are currently in 2nd in Mike Dean’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 2.11 PPG.
In Mike Dean’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Manchester United come 9th with an average positive swing of 0.10.
Manchester United are currently in 8th in Mike Dean’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.43 BPM.
In Mike Dean’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Manchester United come 8th with an overall average of 8.03 FPB.
Manchester United are consistent performers under Mike Dean with not only an overall average of 2.11 PPG but, it seems, that they get close to this every season. It is fair to say though that Manchester United never really over-perform and this is backed up by the overall AHS nearly breaking even at 0.10 – all in all Manchester United’s figures under Mike Dean look pretty normal for a team in their position. This season though – you can see Manchester United at are a record low, in terms of relative performance, yet still taking consistent points.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Manchester United took all their bookings under Mike Dean.
It’s encouraging to see that bookings to Manchester United’s midfield are trending earlier over the seasons and average out at this season at around the 20 minute mark. There are also a few bookings to the defence this season averaging around the half way mark.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Manchester United’s opposition took all their bookings under Mike Dean.
You can really see the bookings dropping off for Manchester United’s opposition this season and this fit’s with the graph above [Mike Dean V. Manchester United (EPL)] – in which we see Manchester United’s opposition getting away with more in the challenge in terms of Fouls Per Booking. These figures have been trending less and later for a good season and a half now.
Let’s move on now to check out how Mike Dean performs against selected teams in the EPL:
And now we come full circle in this RefWatch – this is the same graph (with the addition of Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur) that I showed you at the start of the article. We can see that Arsenal perform so very, very badly – while Chelsea have performed so very well. Tottenham have done well since the arrival of Harry Redknapp and Manchester City are currently enjoying rude form but are erratic. Manchester Untited have done ok but are currently on a bit of a downer performance wise.
The other thing that’s worthy of a bit of a mention is that this match, this über-majassive gambling extravaganza of a match, will also be the first EPL match ever to be televised live by a U.S. over-the-air network – how exciting!
The Predictortron gives Arsenal a -1.002404 disadvantage… but this is, after all, a Sunday afternoon – so who knows what could happen.