RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Chelsea (21/04/2012 – 12:45) « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News, supporting the club, the players and the manager
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- Referee: Mike Dean
- Assistant 1: Stuart Burt
- Assistant 2: Adam Watts
- 4th Official: Neil Swarbrick
Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… ever get that feeling of Déjà vu? Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated? I suspect most of you clicking on this page will already be well aware as to whom the referee is for this fixture and will have already made up your minds up as to what to expect from this RefWatch and the direction it’s going to take – and who am I to disappoint you eh!?
This does pose a problem for me though – given that we have had Mike Dean so many times this season I sometimes feel like I’m just repeating myself… I mean – how many ways can we state the inappropriate nature of this appointment and just how many markers can we find that indicate a conflict of interest?
Luckily, dear reader, this is Untold Arsenal and we are forever finding new angles for your perusal – we will give both credit and scorn where it’s due, we will sort the wheat from the chaff in our unerring task to present to you what is untold…
…we are a different gravy!
Mike Dean is becoming something of a cartoon villain among the Arsenal fanbase and one suspects that, if he were to have a moustache, he would be twiddling it right now and cackling with relish at the thought of getting yet another chance to lash Arsenal’s seasonal objectives to the railway tracks (in time for the 12:45 Fulham Express). This appointment is statistically “unlucky” for many reasons:
- This is Mike Dean’s 6th EPL Arsenal match this season.. no other team has had the same referee 6 times in the 2011/2012 season.
- This is Chelsea’s 5th EPL match under Mike Dean – and although some other clubs have had the same referee 5 times this season, it is not the norm – here are the other teams currently on 5 referee’s with some other useful stats:
Team Referee Games Avg. Poins Avg. AH Swing Manchester United Howard Webb 5 2.000 0.600 Manchester City Martin Atkinson 5 2.000 -0.100 Aston Villa Michael Oliver 5 1.200 0.500 West Bromwich Albion Lee Mason 5 1.000 0.900 Sunderland Chris Foy 5 1.000 -0.700 Queens Park Rangers Martin Atkinson 5 0.200 -0.850 - Mike Dean is statistically the Referee under which Arsenal significantly underperform the most – and by quite some margin.
- Chelsea’s performances under Mike Dean have been consistently good over several seasons – he is second [only to Martin Atkinson] in terms of being Chelsea’s best referee (for referees with 15 EPL games for Chelsea or more).
Of course you all knew this already… not so much as in facts and figures maybe but in that feeling in your stomach when you heard that Mike Dean was ‘selected’ to officiate this fixture. Unfortunately, though, eye witness accounts from fans of blatant and repeated muggings from an official are not deemed worthy to be taken into consideration with those who are critical to the point of obtuse – even if we put this in perspective with results and performance markers (derived from bookmaker data worldwide) – no, they say, we want more and you must quantify your stance down to a ‘every kick of the ball’ granularity if we are to listen… and not just for Arsenal games – oh no, you must do this for all teams so we can gain the perspective we require to even consider your opinion; anything less we will dismiss out of hand.
Fair enough… and it just so happens that Untold Arsenal has done just that through its open source Referee Reviews. This is a work in progress, but each season we progress a little more and right about now [after some 256 separate ‘new style’ reviews] we are in a position to start to look at some numbers – if you disagree with these numbers then you should check out each and every open source Referee Review and argue the toss over each individual point of validity in which you wish to debate with our team of qualified referees; they will listen – you owe them that at least before your eyes glaze over and you squawk:
“This is incompatible with my spoon-fed perception of reality, therefore, it cannot be!”
But bear in mind dear consumer of all products football that at Untold Arsenal there is no spoon and denial will receive no quarter here… we now mirror your stance pertaining to the burden of proof – if you disagree with us, you put in the hours and come back to us with your research. FYI – At present there are 5805 rows of data, each one representing a call or non-call in a football match… you asked for it, you got it – if you don’t like it – jog on.
So, for the perusal of those still reading, here is the Ref Review data combined with my Ref Watch data (to measure against PPG and AHS) for Mike Dean games for teams that he has officiated 3 times or more this season [that have been subject to a Ref Review]:
Key:
- AIA: Average Incorrect Against
- AIA W: Average Incorrect Against (Weighted)
- AIF: Average Incorrect For
- AIF W: Average Incorrect For (Weighted)
- ABS: Average Bias Swing [= AIF – AIA]
- ABS W: Average Bias Swing (Weighted) [= AIF W – AIA W]
- PPG: Average Points Per Game
- NGP: Number of Games Played
- AHS: Average Asian Handicap Swing
| Team | AIF | AIA | ABS | AIF W | AIA W | ABS W | PPG | NGP | AHS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 10.333 | 4.333 | 6 | 14.333 | 5 | 9.333 | 2 | 3 | -0.833 |
| Manchester City | 7 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 10 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 4 | 1.438 |
| Chelsea | 5.5 | 7.75 | -2.25 | 7.75 | 9.25 | -1.5 | 2.25 | 4 | 0.688 |
| Arsenal | 3.6 | 16.4 | -12.8 | 4.6 | 21.4 | -16.8 | 0.8 | 5 | -0.45 |
And here is an more accessible chart, based on those figures, for the ease of your consumption:
Note: There are, of course, more teams that have had the pleasure of Dean for 3 games or more this season – but we don’t have full data for all of those games due to the lack of qualified referees willing to join our ranks and put in a bit of a shift in the form of a Referee Review for the greater good of the game – I tip my hat to the Referee Reviewers out there for their expertise and time; you are taking your skills to the next level in this and, in doing so, you are cleaning your house from the ground-up and protecting the reputation of referees everywhere… it saddens me that there are so many shit referees at the “highest level” – I have the similar feelings in this [about the PGMOL] as I do about the music industry – but I digress.
Referees everywhere – join us and help us review more games, we need you – leave a comment below and Walter will contact you!
As you can see from the bar chart, this season, Tottenham get the most favours from Mike Dean (especially when you look at the ‘weighted’ figures) although they do not have the most Points Per Game and/or highest positive Asian Handicap Swing differential. In fact their PPG and AH Swing figures were wiped out in their crushing 5-2 defeat against Arsenal – despite this, this still left Arsenal with a negative AH swing and a very low return in the way of points. Arsenal has been hit hard by Mike Dean and the return of points is reflective of the sheer amount of decisions that go against us under his stewardship – we are deep into negative territory with the flat and weighted bias figures showing a staggeringly high number of bad calls going against us.
Manchester City are looking rosy under Dean with the incorrect calls tilting the pitch gently their way and 4 wins from 4 games – not much more to say than that, the Blue Mooners must think he’s quite lovely this season.
Chelsea have a good points return and a slightly negative tilt on their decisions (less so on weighted or important decisions which would indicate that they have more ‘big calls’ go in their favour than not) – also the games that showed a negative bias against Chelsea under Dean this season were won comfortably by Chelsea and they only dropped points under Mike Dean in their game against Manchester City – on the whole it seems to be evening out for them in terms of decisions on the pitch and they have a good return of points to show for it.
And that my friends is a peek of the ‘big picture’ – what I take from this is the use of bookmaker information to establish bias is OK but can be misleading (as we can see from Tottenham’s data) – it only takes one big upset to sway this on a season basis – although the significance of these events (as outliers) will diminish over many seasons… and I am already having loads of good ideas in terms of using this new data for analysis and prediction to counter these types of anomolies. The other thing I take is the incomparable value of the Ref Review data – it’s quite an incredible source of information and as a first attempt at a framework to capture information it’s pretty good… I’m not saying that this can’t be improved – it can and will be as our experience and expertise grows in this endeavour.
Now – all well and good that this is, we do have a bit of a football match on and we need to try and fathom exactly why the PGMOL selected Mike Dean for this fixture and what could possibly be the motivation for such an appointment? They are a fairly well ‘resource equipped’ organisation and they claim to gather data on referee performances so we must assume that they know something of Mike Dean’s history – without much analysis, review or even a cursory glance at his celebration dance after the first Tottenham goal in the NLD; one look at the number of points Arsenal take from games under Mike Dean should at the very least raise an eyebrow or two.
I am left with the assumption, right or wrong, that the referee selectors at the PGMOL are actively seeking to see Arsenal drop points in this match and are well aware of Arsenal’s recent history with Mike Dean… is this any more ridiculous that the stance of the PGMOL who will have you believe that this appointment is one that was selected to ensure the fair and impartial officiating of a sporting competition?
But it doesn’t stop there – Mike Dean has (as we have documented on these pages before) a rather curious relationship with Harry Redknapp. Add to this the fine run of form that Chelsea have with Mike Dean and well – hasn’t something of a ‘perfect storm’ been generated here in that Tottenham and Chelsea’s best chance of gaining a Champions League position is if Arsenal lose?
That is, assuming, that all relationships are equal – I’m sure that ‘Onest ‘Arry will be praying for Chelsea to drop points in this game to give them a shoe-in for 4th.
Hey – maybe the motivation behind this appointment is that the PGMOL wish to find out what Mike Dean is all about and are using the game as the ‘tethered goat’ in their study?
If you have a conspiratorial theory that makes more sense than blaming it all on Aaron Ramsey or “it’s just the luck of the draw init” then please leave it in the comments section below.
The other thing worthy of a mention is that this is the early kickoff and, as such, highly exposed in the Asian mug markets:
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.050 | 0 – 1/2 | 1.850 |
The Under/Over market:
| Over | Handicap | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.875 | 2 1/2 | 2.025 |
Let’s have a look at the Referee:
- Full name: Mike Leslie Dean
- Date of birth: 02-Jun-1968 (Age 44)
- Place of birth: The Wirral
- Resides: Cheshire
- EPL/ECH Referee Since: 1999/2000
- EPL/ECH Games to date: 320
OK, you got me bang to rights – but I’ve got a FIFA badge so there’s nothing you can do about it.
It’s Mike Dean again… you remember him and you know who he is – but here is a reminder of his work:
Let’s check out his stats!
Mike Dean has had 32 games for Arsenal consisting of 14 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses.
Arsenal are currently in 6th in Mike Dean’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.63 PPG.
In Mike Dean’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 20th with an average negative swing of -0.19.
Arsenal are currently in 27th in Mike Dean’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 2.13 BPM.
In Mike Dean’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 28th with an overall average of 5.46 FPB.
The main things to note in the above graph are the consistent low flying fat red line, which indicates that Arsenal get booked more for fewer tackles that their opposition, and the skinny blue line that sits below zero, that indicates a fairly consistent underperformance and very little in the way of a points return for Arsenal, in matches officiated by Mike Dean.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Mike Dean.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Mike Dean.
Let’s move on now and check out how Chelsea perform under the whistle of Mike Dean:
Mike Dean has had 38 games for Chelsea consisting of 24 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses.
Chelsea are currently in 2nd in Mike Dean’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 2.05 PPG.
In Mike Dean’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Chelsea come 9th with an average positive swing of 0.17.
Chelsea are currently in 26th in Mike Dean’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 2.11 BPM.
In Mike Dean’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Chelsea come 27th with an overall average of 5.49 FPB.
There is some fantastic consistency here in Chelsea’s FPB/BPM figures with that of their opposition (red and orange lines) this seems to indicate that Chelsea have had a pretty fair run of things under Mike Dean – so credit goes to him there. And this also reflects quite nicely the Ref Review data on Dean/Chelsea games for this season.
Chelsea are trending very well performance wise under Mike Dean (blue line) and have been ‘on the up’ in his figures since 2007/2008 with good performance indicators and good return points-wise.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Chelsea took all their bookings under Mike Dean.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Chelsea’s opposition took all their bookings under Mike Dean.
Let’s move on now to check out how Mike Dean performs against selected teams in the EPL:
In terms of performance, Chelsea are the standout team in Mike Dean’s data – Tottenham have dropped this season and this is mainly due to the crushing defeat they suffered at the hands of the mighty Arsenal in the North London Derby (I never tire of saying that). Arsenal’s line has also taken a bit of an upturn because of this – but not by much.
Arsenal has one advantage in this game and that is that Chelsea have just played what looked like a pretty gruelling first leg of their Champions League semi against Barcelona on a soggy surface – although I do expect Drogba to be well rested after the amount of time he spent lying down in that match. The disadvantages we have are, of course, the Atreta injury and the appointment of Mike Dean… but we do have in our Arsenal another weapon – and that weapon is you, the crowd!
The fans will make the difference in this match and they need to be right up for it! You need to shout yourself hoarse and sing yourself stupid – be one, be angry and SUPPORT; don’t let those Chelsea mugs get a look in with any chant they start and get right on Dean’s back for every call he makes – maybe then we can come away from this game very happy indeed.
The Predictortron gives Arsenal a -1.141026 disadvantage….
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