RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Aston Villa (24/03/2012 – 15:00) « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News, supporting the club, the players and the manager
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- Referee: Phil Dowd
- Assistant 1: Stuart Burt
- Assistant 2: Adam Watts
- 4th Official: Darren Deadman
Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… it’s another shamefully bare bones edition of RefWatch – work has been a demanding mistress this week and to top it off I was dragged away to a quite dreadful charity quiz night that only just ended… it’s a shame as I was going to talk about some interesting stuff and quite possibly go off on one about all kinds of shit; ahh well – let’s look to the Asian markets.
Asian Handicap (betting line) market:
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.050 | 0 – 1 1/2 | 1.850 |
The Under/Over market:
| Over | Handicap | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.875 | 2 3/4 | 2.025 |
One and a half ball looks a bit generous to me on the betting line as Villa didn’t play their match on Wednesday against Bolton. We did rather sit back in our game against Everton and perhaps this was a gamble to keep something in the bag for this game.
Aston Villa I feel will also have a point to prove after a very spirited display in the reverse fixture earlier this season in which they came away with nothing.
Let’s have a look at the Referee:
- Full name: Phil Dowd
- Date of birth: 26-Jan-1963 (Age 49)
- Place of birth: Staffordshire
- Resides: Staffordshire
- EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2000/2001
- EPL/ECH Games to date: 276
Phil Dowd working the crowd… hello mum!
It’s Phil Dowd again… the panto villian; you remember him from the excellent referee reviews:
Let’s check out his stats!
Phil Dowd has had 19 games for Arsenal consisting of 10 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses.
Arsenal are currently in 3rd in Phil Dowd’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.89 PPG.
In Phil Dowd’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 16th with an average negative swing of -0.03.
Arsenal are currently in 17th in Phil Dowd’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.84 BPM.
In Phil Dowd’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 28th with an overall average of 6.20 FPB.
It’s fair to say that we have had an up and down relationship with Phil Dowd. In the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 seasons we underperformed but still did ok in terms of our PPG. We did a lot better in the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons but in the 2010/2011 season we crashed big time – not only that Phil Dowd’s booking habits swung heavily against us booking our players more and often. This season we have picked up slightly but we are still not showing a good return of points under Phil Dowd.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Phil Dowd.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Phil Dowd.
Phil Dowd has had 18 games for Aston Villa consisting of 5 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses.
Aston Villa are currently in 23rd in Phil Dowd’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.11 PPG.
In Phil Dowd’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Aston Villa come 13th with an average positive swing of 0.02.
Aston Villa are currently in 13th in Phil Dowd’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.67 BPM.
In Phil Dowd’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Aston Villa come 6th with an overall average of 8.77 FPB.
Aston Villa have had a remarkably similar run of form under Phil Dowd in that they used to do really well before doing so very badly and then recovering a bit. The only difference really is in the bookings in which, despite their poor run of form, Phil Dowd seems to be far more lenient with Villa in the challenge than Arsenal.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Aston Villa took all their bookings under Phil Dowd.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Aston Villa’s opposition took all their bookings under Phil Dowd.
Let’s move on now to check out how Phil Dowd performs against selected teams in the EPL:
Phil Dowd’s trends are as interesting as they are erratic. Liverpool look fairly normal where are Manchester United have underperformed (while still taking good points) until this season. Tottenham were showing a steady rise until this season where they have crashed. Chelsea are sine waving their way through the seasons under Dowd while Manchester City have risen from the gutter to the stars with the most remarkable turnaround in relative performance I have ever seen.
As you can see from Aston Villa’s line – they were super performers under Dowd back in the day but now, not so much. Arsenal also did well under Dowd until recently – both teams have shown improvement this season hitting the handicap about even – and if that still holds true then, since we are giving 1 ½ goals, we should take 3 points… however the Predictortron gives Arsenal a -0.704671 of a goal disadvantage but that could be nonsense as I’ve been tinkering with the wee fellah of late to take in some extra parameters and I can’t remember what state I left it in or why it would come up with a figure like this.
If you’d like to toss your hard earned to the winds of fate then why not do so here.
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Post-pub previews: Arsenal vs Villa. Spurs trailing in our wake
Premier League weekend previews – the games of Arsenal, Man U, Man C, Chelsea and Tottenham
Our last match – how the referee did. Everton 0 Arsenal 1