Referees’ mistakes all even out in the end. Well actually, no…. « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
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By Walter Broeckx
After almost every article I write about the refs in which I try to shed a light in to things I get an interesting question from one of our readers. And I do like those questions a lot because it brings me new ideas and every time I start to dig deeper and deeper in to the numbers we have gathered from our ref reviews. I will warn you when I pass the centre of the earth one of these days.
So the question was if we could look at some numbers and see which refs are getting close to a 50 % in their wrong calls for each team. Because if a ref makes wrong calls, but these are equally distributed to either team then it may well be that he is just a referee who makes mistakes, rather than a referee who is biased against one team or the other.
In this regard an average of 50% against each team is the target.
Of course the table you get is an average and it only tells a part of the story. But this is how we get the decisions and how the average divides between wrong calls for and against any team the refs have done.
| Ref | Average wrong calls between | |
| Walton |
56 |
44 |
| Atkinson |
58 |
42 |
| Dean |
55 |
45 |
| Dowd |
57 |
43 |
| Halsey |
51 |
49 |
| Jones |
59 |
41 |
| Mason |
54 |
46 |
| Probert |
57 |
43 |
| Webb |
57 |
43 |
| Atwell |
63 |
37 |
| Clattenburg |
57 |
43 |
| Marinner |
55 |
45 |
| Friend |
56 |
44 |
| Taylor |
57 |
43 |
| Foy |
53 |
47 |
| Oliver |
66 |
34 |
One could say that the more mistakes you make the less biased you are. For example, Halsey is a ref with a high number of wrong calls but on average he makes it closest to the 50% mark.
And if you see at the other end of the table you can see that Oliver is the ref who has shown the biggest difference in his games when it came to making mistakes. He goes up to 66% against some of the teams on the field in his games. A rather high number but note that this was only from 4 games and two of them were Arsenal games. So if we would have more material on him it could lower his number…..and make him more suspicious.
The next thing that then entered my mind was if I could see when refs go over that line. And I took 2 guinea pigs: the refs we have reviewed most so far this season. Let us take a look at the interesting numbers of Mr. Webb and Mr. Dean.
| Webb/team | Average | Average 57% |
| ARS |
74% |
18% |
| MU |
49% |
-7% |
| FUL |
70% |
13% |
| BLA |
30% |
-13% |
| MC |
52% |
-5% |
| EVE |
53% |
-4% |
| SUN |
9% |
-34% |
| TOT |
40% |
-3% |
| QPR |
70% |
13% |
| NOR |
20% |
-23% |
| CHE |
64% |
8% |
| NEW |
41% |
-2% |
| LIV |
75% |
18% |
| STO |
25% |
-18% |
So Webb can be excused to have a wrong decisions calling between the divide of 57% and 43%. This is what I would call his normal mistake divide.
And then you can see that Arsenal has 18% more wrong calls going against them as they get the total of 74% of the wrong calls against them from Webb.
Also notice how United is nice in the middle with Webb. Some might have expected a better score for United but this is only based on 2 games and one of those games he didn’t have to do anything at all to help United. The Arsenal score is based on 3 games so far this season.
Notice how Tottenham is very kindly treated this season by Webb in the 3 games he did so far.
But there are a few extraordinary numbers in there. The team that was treated the best by Webb this season was Sunderland. I think it was a game against Arsenal and that could explain it a bit. Oh and Chelsea is on the wrong side of things, just like Liverpool. But this last is only based on one game so far.
Now let us move on to Dean and in general he has a lower number of wrong calls against than Webb with only 55% and 45 as his base line.
| Dean/team |
Overall average= 55% |
|
| MC |
35,00% |
-10% |
| SWA |
80,00% |
25% |
| CHE |
62,26% |
8% |
| ARS |
74,85% |
20% |
| TOT |
45,45% |
0% |
| FUL |
13,33% |
-32% |
| BLA |
65,00% |
10% |
| NEW |
35,71% |
-10% |
| STO |
50,00% |
-5% |
| MU |
13,33% |
-32% |
The worst treated team so far is Swansea but that was only based on one game at Manchester City. And in second place when it comes to getting more wrong calls against is Arsenal. Based on 3 games so far and I think this is not a real surprise. With Dean in charge we get 75% of the decisions going against us. 75 % of the wrong decisions that is. And this for a ref who is capable of only making it to 55% in his average games. Amazingly high number. I bet this is a coincidence!
The extraordinary low number of Fulham can be excused. This was based on a game against Arsenal. Oh well, it will be another coincidence I think.
But look at United. You can have a one off but this is based on two games. So we could conclude that in general he is very weel-disposed when it comes to United. I once again bet this will be another coincidence.
Another team that is well treated is Manchester City. The new rich boys can have a nice record of a low number of wrong calls going against them so far. Oh well, another coincidence I think.
Or is it that Dean knows who to please at the moment he has to please someone? Because that is just what Dean is doing in my opinion. He has that “fingerspitzengefuhl” on when to give a little hand to which team. Apart from his good relationship with Harry Redknapp, he also just knows where the power is shifting towards and who he has to keep as a good friend in order to get his career at the highest possible level.
And there is another coincidence: only 3 games after our last game under Dean we welcome him back at the Emirates for the game against Tottenham. You know that team that has Redknapp as a manager. You know the one who Dean has a special relationship with. Oh, well it will be another coincidence.
Our latest Untold Ref Review is Manchester City 3 Fulham 0
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