Podolski: where will he play, and what does it all mean for Arsenal? « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
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Analysis of Podolski’s Impending Transfer
-by Mark Ibrahim
Various newspapers throughout Europe are reporting that Lukas Podolski will move to Arsenal this summer for a transfer fee of £10.9m. It is believed that he has already signed a 4-year contract for a salary of £100,000-a-week. Now, I usually take all transfer news with a huge lump of salt until it has been confirmed by either party but the following evidence is enough to convince me that this is, in fact, a done deal.
EVIDENCE THAT THE DEAL IS DONE
Just last weekend, former Bayer Leverkusen manager Reiner Calmund was quoted as saying there’s a “90 per cent chance” Podolski will join the Gunners this summer. “I would bet a fortune on it! I talked with Lukas during the carnival. He is fixated on clubs in England, and I believe that there is a 90 per cent chance that he will move to Arsenal”.
A few days after, Per Mertesacker told Sky news that “He [Podolski] has shown a lot of interest in recent weeks and has sent me a text message… As you can imagine, I’ve told him positive things… I have written to him, though, to tell him how well he can do here and what a great club it is. I think it [the transfer] can happen.”
The most telling comments however came while Per was speaking to Sky yesterday. With the subtlety of hammer, he proclaimed, “I think time will bring clarity… But I’m not a teammate of Lukas Podolski… yet”.
Watch the interview here: http://www.skysports.com/video/inline/0,,16429_7579921,00.html
LOOKING AT THE MONEY
In this market, it would be an understatement to say that 10.9 million pounds is a very good price for a striker of Podolski’s pedigree. The fact that he is only 26 years old and a seasoned international makes this a prudent buy. However, Arsenal are paying a lot more for his services than it may at first seem. If his contract is, in fact, for £100,000-a-week, that means he will be earning £5 million-a-year, or £20 million over the course of 4 years. That totals to £30 million excluding Agent fees & bonuses. Even so, that is still far less than his market value.
The real point of interest here is that it signals a change of approach by Arsenal board. To put in perspective Arsenal highest ever paid player was Cesc Fabregas who was earning approx. £110,000-a-week. What’s more is that our current captain Robin Van Persie (who most would agree is values higher) is on £70,000-a-week. Bearing this in mind, Podolski’s wages are quite high by Arsenal’s standards.
So what? Well, it is believed that Arsene has from 40-50 at his disposal for the summer. This buy, along with the fact that RVP will be getting a massive salary increase on his new contract, means that there will be little money left for other transfer options. Of course IF we are able to sell/terminate some of our less deserving players (crossing fingers) Wenger will have additional funds. That however is a big if and they will have to wait until said players are sold first before attempting to use the money freed.
END RESULT: it is unlikely that we be able to sign any other big name players such as a Hazard or Vertonghen.
Now, let’s have a look at the compilation I made of Podolski’s career stats below.
PERSONAL STATS
A. German National Team (Autumn ’04 → present):
Goals = 40; Assists = 9; Games Started = 73; Games Sub’d = 17; Games/Goal = 2.25; Games/Assist = 10
B. 1st Stint @ FC Koln (Fall ’03 → Spring ’06):
Goals = 22; Assists = 0; Games Started = 47; Games Sub’d = 3; Games/Goal = 2.27;
C. Bayern Munchen (Fall ’06 → Spring ’09):
Goals = 30; Assists = 15; Games Started = 50; Games Sub’d = 48; Games/Goal = 3.26; Games/Assist = 6.53
D. 2nd Stint @ FC Koln (Fall ’09 → Present):
Goals = 33; Assists = 16; Games Started = 85; Games Sub’d = 2; Games/Goal = 2.63; Games/Assist = 5.44;
Shots Taken = 227; Shots on Target = 82; %Shots on Target = 36%; %Shots leading to Goals = 14.5%
MY CONCLUSIONS
PROS:
-This move is a welcome change from the board. Buying Podolski is clearly aimed at convincing RVP and the football world that the club does have some ambition left in it
-We need another striker. Podolski is young, looks hungry to get another chance at proving himself at the elite club level, and is a proven goal-scorer. Even at Bayern his stats show that he yielded a good return.
CONS/POSSIBLE CONS:
The stats may flatter Podolski:
1) He is the head honcho at FC Koln. This means everyone tries to get the ball to him and he takes all the penalty kicks and set pieces. I couldn’t find how many of his goals actually came from open play. At Arsenal, he will not be the head man but another member of the team. I wonder if he will still be able to be as productive
2) He is left-footed like RVP. Now, I’m not sure what Wenger is planning but I hope he gets his tactics right with Podolski. I hope he doesn’t alternate b/w RVP & Podolski up front without ever playing them together. More importantly, I HOPE TO GOD HE DOESN’T TRY TO MAKE HIM INTO A WINGER like he did with AA. I know he’s played on the flank before but that’s not where he’s strongest. If Wenger isn’t stubborn enough perhaps he could play him as the CF with RVP as the false 9 or play them together in a 4-4-2.
3) I know some of you must be thinking, “is he going to be RVP’s replacement?” For me this isn’t a con, because I don’t believe RVP will leave us. He is our captain and he loves the Arsenal. I think RVP is loyal and he won’t forget how Wenger stuck with him through all his injury-ridden years. In fact, I think this buy is in large part to placate him and the fans (they’re selling next year’s tickets right now).
MY VERDICT: A bit of a gamble Wenger is taking here, given the money involved, other great strikers available, and his previous failure to thrive on the big club stage. In the end, I do think it is one worth taking so long as he is used properly.
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