Monday, May 30th, 2011 « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade

Well, well, well some more strange numbers this season

By Walter Broeckx

With the numbers of the refs from this season available I would like to point at a few numbers that I can get from the data I gathered in the season.

And I come to the conclusion that the longer the season goes the lower the scores of the refs is becoming.

I know that there are exceptions of course. I will not talk about intent or bias for a moment and just presume that all refs are honest and do their best. And then the only explanation could be that the refs are getting more tired towards the end of the season.

I think this is the same like for most teams. Because don’t forget the refs run an average of something between 10 to 15 km in a game in the EPL. And most refs do two games in a week during a big part of the season. So fatigue could be a part in the making of bad decisions.

So yet another fact that gives more fuel to our demand of having more refs in the EPL. The more refs you have the fewer games each ref has to do and the less problems with fatigue. Hello PGMOL are you listening?

But there are other issues that we have been highlighting in this season. The known bias that can be seen from the numbers that Dogface provided. The bias from some refs on the field that only a blind man could not see. And then the question arises: is there something in the numbers that suggests that something might be a bit suspicious. Well let us try to see if we can find something if I slice the data in little bits and compare a few different things.

To start with this is the final average score for all games in English competitions from Arsenal this season.

Game		cards	penalty	goals	other	total
Total		2855	2434	4377	2350	3121
Average correct decisions	%	57,10	48,68	87,54	47,00	62,42

The already known low score of 62% of the important decisions that are correct.

Now if we can go back to the start of the season it is clear that nobody took us seriously when we said we could win the league. Until we took things in hands and went to first place after our away win at Aston Villa. Suddenly we became a threat.

Before that game the average score of the important decisions was

Game		cards	penalty	goals	other	total
Total EPL includes A Villa		897	824	1384	424	961
Average correct decisions	%	59,80	54,93	92,27	28,27	64,07

So these are the numbers when nobody mentioned us when it came to winning the league.

And let us now see what happens with the numbers after the Villa game

Game		cards	penalty	goals	other	total
EPL after Villa		1213	693	1772	1180	1259
Average correct decisions	%	55,14	31,50	80,55	53,64	57,23

Now if you would just take a look at the immense drop in the all important penalty decisions. From an already low of just half the penalty decisions that are correct they drop to only 3 on 10 penalty decisions that are correct!!!

And if we look at the goals they also drop from 9/10 to 8/10. So suddenly the numbers on the most important decisions of them all drop considerable. This is not a slow slide down a soft hill. No this is falling from the highest tops of a cliff in free fall.

So how can you explain this? Well…if you know the reason please send them on a postcard to Untold Towers. Or post them in the comment section.

And to make these numbers even more staggering I will add the numbers of the cup games we had this season.

Game		cards	penalty	goals	other	total
Just cup games		646	767	1021	627	770
Average correct decisions	%	58,73	69,73	92,82	57,00	70,00

And goodness me what do we see now? Just look at the penalty decisions in the cup games. Almost 70% of the decisions are correct. This is more than the double of the penalty decisions compared to the EPL since we became title contenders. I repeat more than the double!!

And also the goals go up in the cup games to the 92% mark we could see at the start of the EPL this season before we came title contenders.

So it is clear to see that there is a huge gap and difference between the Cup games and the EPL games and certainly since we came into the running for the title.

Thus a suggestion could be that the refs are not instructed as they maybe are in the EPL? After all it doesn’t make any difference who gets to the final and who stays in the running for a cup. The only thing that matters is the final if you want to change something.

As for the EPL it looks as if from a certain moment something suddenly has changed. Is it a coincidence that the numbers of the most important decisions like penalties and goals suddenly drop significant from the moment Arsenal really came in the running for the league? Is it really just coincidence?

And to make things clearer I just give you the table with just the scores on the most important decisions again for the penalties and the goals and without the cards and other decisions in it.

Game		penalty	goals	Total
Total EPL includes A Villa	Points	824	1384	961
Average correct decisions	%	54,93	92,27	73,60
EPL after Villa	Points	693	1772	1259
Average correct decisions	%	31,50	80,55	56,02
Just cup games	Points	767	1021	770
Average correct decisions	%	69,73	92,82	81,27
Total	points	2334	4277	3038
Average correct decisions	%	47,63	87,29	67,46

And look at how the decisions go up and down. And notice the big difference between cup games and the big difference before and after our away game at Aston Villa. And remember these games are done by the same refs for the cup games and the EPL.

What is the matter? What is the reason for this change? Coincidence?  Yeah, my a..

———————-

The overall performance of each individual ref this season – and is the Untold ref analysis biased?

The 10% bias – how refs fix the odds against Arsenal, and who is to blame.

Half the penalties in Arsenal games were wrongly given this season!