Monday, March 12th, 2012 « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
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- Referee: Howard Webb
- Assistant 1: Peter Kirkup
- Assistant 2: Simon Long
- 4th Official: Michael Jones
Good morning stat-fans and welcome to the regular RefWatch… it’s a tough one to call for me today – not only because, as I write this, it’s Monday morning and I’m never very good on Monday mornings but also because the game is dangling out on the limb that is Monday night. I’ve never been a fan of the highly exposed games – I’ve blogged this before, there is a certain safety in numbers when it comes to these things in terms of evading the predatory nature of the Asian black markets.
The other thing that concerns me slightly is the recent spat between Wenger and Damir Skomina in which it is alleged that he [Wenger] addressed Damir as a “fucking disgrace” as he [Damir] flounced off down the tunnel [allegedly] squealing:
“Don’t touch me, don’t touch me – I don’t like to be touched!”
This performance from Damir Skomina, which seemed a bizarre cross between Rain man and Liberace, was in my view a clumsy attempt from Skomina to avoid discussing his second half performance with Wenger and washing his hands of the issue by creating a new issue; it would seem that Damir’s reaction implies that he was aware that an ‘issue’ existed and he was uncomfortable discussing it i.e. he was either repressing an immediate sense of guilt that triggered his psychological ‘flight’ response or he really is a hapless haphephobic, socially crippled retard who can’t bear the thought of eye contact and is psychologically unable to fulfil the requirements of professional courtesy expected of him?
UEFA sure know how to pick em eh!?
But surely, I hear you cry [or not] – this is just par for the course from UEFA and poor little Damir was just reacting within the parameters of the standard UEFA template with regards to issue avoidance and diversionary incredulity?
To speculate further (and explain what I mean), this is all a bit rich as if, indeed, Wenger’s comments are to be considered a ‘crime’ in the eyes of UEFA – then surely (if UEFA is to be considered a responsible organisation) it would openly examine the cause of the crime rather than just taking the rather draconian approach to hit all non-conformist ‘perpetrators’ with a large stick?
It seems to me that the cause of Wenger’s ‘crime’ was a pattern of crimes in the form of repeated muggings from UEFA itself at the hands their appointed representatives on the field of play – in this a punishment, of sorts, has actually preceded the crime?
Alas this is not in the focus of the multi-billion euro industry that is UEFA as it relies on the perceived integrity of the competition, in the eyes of the consumer [you], in order to sell advertising space directly or by proxy via television networks.
And hence, in the interests of the business model, the crime becomes the complaint itself and the complaint therefore needs to be punished to give credence in terms of public confidence in the aforementioned ‘perceived integrity’ of the UEFA brand i.e. the underlying message is: to question UEFA’s integrity is a crime in itself and it will be punished – or in layman’s terms: “Respect My Authoritah!”.
Now, to get back to the point, the reason that all this concerns me is that Damir Skomina has his FIFA badge; he is a ‘made man’ in referee circles and is part of a select lodge of untouchables which includes the likes of Mike Dean and, of course, FIFA’s golden boy Howard Webb…
…Has Wenger poked the hornets’ nest with his uncomfortable truths – we shall, no doubt, see in good time.
Asian Handicap (betting line) market:
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.950 | 0 – 1 1/4 | 1.950 |
The Under/Over market:
| Over | Handicap | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.000 | 3 | 1.900 |
Let’s have a look at the Referee:
- Full name: Howard Melton Webb
- Date of birth: 14-Jul-1971 (Age 41)
- Place of birth: Rotherham
- Resides: South Yorkshire
- EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2002/2003
- EPL/ECH Games to date: 257
Howard Webb – “Ahh… Mr. Wenger, I’ve been expecting you”
It’s Howard Webb again… you remember him from the excellent, ever improving and scientific Ref Review series:
Let’s check out his stats!
Howard Webb has had 24 games for Arsenal consisting of 10 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses.
Arsenal are currently in 8th in Howard Webb’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.58 PPG.
In Howard Webb’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 17th with an average negative swing of -0.16.
Arsenal are currently in 27th in Howard Webb’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 2.46 BPM.
In Howard Webb’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 28th with an overall average of 5.00 FPB.
We can see from the blue line in the graph above that we are showing a slight underperformance under Howard Webb – the overall average is very slight at -0.16 of a goal. This season we can see a heavy dive in performance under Webb, but this is mainly down to the game at Old Trafford earlier this season in which Arsenal lost 8-2. The orange and red lines indicate that Arsenal get booked a lot more in the challenge than our opposition under Howard Webb – the fat low red line shows that we get booked often and for less fouls in comparison to the high thin orange line which indicates more fouls and less bookings.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Howard Webb.
As you can see Arsenal’s Defence and Midfield are the main focus for bookings although there is an unusual consistency for Arsenal strikers getting booked under Howard Webb right from the 2006/2007 season to the present day.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Howard Webb.
Let’s move on now and see how Newcastle United fares under the whistle of Howard Webb:
Howard Webb has had 28 games for Newcastle United consisting of 8 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses.
Newcastle United are currently in 20th in Howard Webb’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.18 PPG.
In Howard Webb’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Newcastle United come 13th with an average positive swing of 0.03.
Newcastle United are currently in 16th in Howard Webb’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.71 BPM.
In Howard Webb’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Newcastle United come 14th with an overall average of 7.54 FPB.
Newcastle also seem to have been treated fairly punitively in the challenge under Howard Webb of late (since the 2008/2009 season) and this has been reflected in the results… that is up until this season where Newcastle United have shown a massive over-performance under Howard Webb by beating Manchester United at home 3-0 and Sunderland away 0-1.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Newcastle United took all their bookings under Howard Webb.
As you can seem, Newcastle United have consistently taken the majority of their bookings in the Midfield and all bookings are trending towards coming later in the game.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Newcastle United’s opposition took all their bookings under Howard Webb.
Newcastle United’s opposition, under Howard Webb, Have taken the majority of their bookings in the Defence and this too is trending towards later in the match.
Let’s move on now to check out how Howard Webb performs against selected teams in the EPL:
As you can see – the standout performers under Howard Webb are Manchester City and Manchester United. Liverpool appears to be in on a distinct downward trend and Chelsea are showing a fairly consistent underperformance across all seasons.
This season Arsenal and Newcastle couldn’t be further apart under Howard Webb in terms of relative performance i.e. Newcastle have averaged a performance of just over 4 goals per game better than Arsenal against the expected result (as derived from bookmaker data).
To be honest, I don’t know what to expect tonight – this is a ‘must win’ fixture in my eyes and this game is one that we need to target for all three points. We have shown that when we have our game heads on we can win at home regardless of the tilt in the pitch – but this is not just a team effort – the fans and the crowd need to be up for it tonight in terms of securing what they can in terms of home advantage.
Be noisy people, be organised and give ‘em hell!