Man City v Arsenal: the team, the background, the result « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News, supporting the club, the players and the manager
by Phil Gregory
With Chelsea eight points clear after their win against Wolves yesterday, Arsenal travel to Eastlands to play Manchester City. City themselves are three points clear of ourselves with slightly inferior goal difference. It goes without saying that three points are what we want against a team with title ambitions, but our away form hasn’t been up to much this season, so expect a nailbiter!
Koscielny is given a 20% chance of appearing against City, while Almunia is “close” to a return but out of this game. Vermaelen is also no nearer to appearing on the teamsheet. Long termers, such as Van Persie, Frimpong and Ramsey are out.
City could well line up in a 442, after Adebayor’s hat trick in the midweek, or their usual 433:
Hart
Boateng Kompany Lescott Bridge
Milner De Jong Yaya Barry
Silva Tevez Milner
or
Hart
Boateng Kompany Lescott Bridge
De Jong
Yaya Barry
Silva Tevez Milner
Formation wise, if they go 433, the two teams will largely cancel each other out. De Jong will pick up Cesc, with Song doing likewise to Toure and the game will come down to the individual 1v1 match-ups. If City go 442, then it gets interesting. That would give us a man advantage in midfield, while they’d have two strikers versus our centreback pairing. Personally, I’d welcome City playing 442, as I always lean towards going for a man advantage in midfield as it helps you secure the lions share of possession; never a bad thing. That said, with our defence consisting of third and fourth choice centrebacks, perhaps our opponents will smell blood and put two up front versus them.
On the whole, will City change their successful formula of the back of one hat trick from a generally misfiring striker? I can’t see it, so I’m going to presume we face the 433.
The biggest weakness that I see in the potential City lineups is at fullback. While Boateng played at fullback for Germany at the World Cup, he’s only ever a centreback playing fullback. That gets you defensive solidity but for a side like City, you expect an offensive outlet from your fullback. We can exploit that. They’ve got some excellent wide players in Johnson and Silva, players who will certainly be able to go damage going forward. However any wide player going forward is hugely benefited if they have a fullback offering an option on the overlap.
Think about it: Silva for example will look to cut into the space between the fullback and the centreback. The fullback is drawn in, leaving acres of space out wide that an attacking fullback exploits. If they don’t have that attacking fullback (or they’ve got a player who isn’t great shakes in the final third) then we are that little bit freer to track their wideman’s run with the fullback. That limits the impact of the move on our centrebacks’ positioning, which of course is one of the aims of cutting into that space in the first place.
In particular, their options at leftback are fairly limited. With Kolo Toure likely to be out, I’d expect them to shift Lescott back across to replace him, with Bridge (or perhaps Zabelata) coming in at leftback. Neither of them are fantastic leftbacks (Zabelata is really a rightback) so this will certainly be an area we will target.
Could Bendtner get a start at wide right to utilise the height mismatch there? Perhaps, and if his fitness isn’t yet up to 90 minutes Theo is usually fairly effective coming on as a sub…
City’s midfield is fairly interesting, with Yaya playing as the most creative of the three central midfielders, despite being considered a holding player for Barcelona. It is, however, a role he plays for the Ivory Coast and he certainly has ability. That said, they don’t come close to us in terms of creativity in midfield thanks to Fabregas. What it is however is a very powerful midfield. Barry, De Jong and Yaya Toure are all physical players, so it’s important we move the ball on quickly and don’t allow ourselves to be drawn into a battle.
Fabianksi
Sagna Djourou Squillaci Clichy
Song
Fabregas Diaby
Nasri Chamakh Arshavin
After some solid performances to date, Fabianski continues between the sticks. Sagna returns in what is a timely boost given City’s offensive riches (in both senses!), while the rest of the back four is very much as you were.
Song shields the back four, Fabregas steps in for the suspended Wilshere and I expect Diaby to come back into midfield. While Bendtner and Walcott are now fit, I’m going for Nasri wide right, with Chamakh in the middle and Arshavin wide left.
There is certainly enough quality in that team to win the game, but I would be happier if Wilshere and Vermaelen in particular back in the lineup. We have been fairly fortunate in terms of returnees, with Sagna and Cesc ready to go. In terms of prediction, I don’t think we can really expect much more than a one goal margin to us given our away form, neither do I expect a clean sheet, given a couple of defensive injuries. 2-1 to the Arsenal seems a reasonable enough prediction, though I feel we are the underdogs going into this one.