Liverpool and Arsenal preview and tactical analysis plus musings on international football. « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade

By Phil Gregory

Arsenal travel up to Anfield early doors for the 12.45pm kick off on Saturday, playing against a side confident of a result after their recent skin-of-their-teeth Carling Cup triumph. While Liverpool fans can correctly point out trophies are trophies, if we put rosy ideals to one side, the grim reality of the Premier League is that fourth place is arguably worth more than a domestic trophy. Quite why winning the FA/Carling Cup doesn’t secure you a place in the Champions League I’ll never know, as such a move would categorically end any loss of lustre for the two competitions. But I digress.

Despite being an Arsenal fan, Liverpool are amongst my most strongly disliked clubs. My experience of their supporters was largely negative “Five European cups” even before the Suarez debacle – which was frankly disgusting – so for me losing against what is a fairly average side earlier on in the season was a real blow. Needless to say winning at their place would do much to make amends, as well as potentially ending their pursuit of fourth place: an Arsenal win would put us ten clear of the Reds.

In terms of casualties, the good old international friendlies have been less than kind. Despite an injury Vermaelen played the full ninety and Van Persie, despite an incredibly heavy workload over the last fourteen months, played 45minutes despite a groin problem. While countries have a right to play players in competitive games as they see fit, this treatment of Vermaelen and Van Persie was downright crazy. Clubs do owe something to national sides, with international appearances vital in getting some players their work permits, but to take this sort of gamble for a friendly is absolutely insane.

I say insane, because to me, it is in nobody’s interest. The national manager risks injury to a player for future games/tournaments as well as damaging the goodwill of the player’s club manager. Alas when national team managers have virtually no incentive to be cautious with the players – after all, the clubs pick up the medical bill – then we get these incredibly foolish outcomes.

Some have called for compensation when players are injured on international duty, with national FA’s covering wages for the period of the layoff. That wouldn’t work, as the likes of the Togo FA simply wouldn’t be able to risk playing Adebayor given an injury to him would bankrupt them, but some reform is clearly needed. Players’ fitness should be assessed by an independent medical professional who passes them fit to play or not, removing accusations of bias. Should a national manager force a player who has been declared injured to play, a system of compensation should be invoked here, perhaps financial penalties alongside the player being compulsorily exempted from national team duty for a number of games. Players will always want to represent their countries, but managers must not be allowed to abuse that, so there have to be checks and balances in place. Fat chance of getting that from FIFA, though.

Turning back to the match at hand then, both Van Persie and Vermaelen are doubts for the game and the absence of either of them would be a loss heading into this game. The ever-improving Tomas Rosicky is expected to be fit to play despite a groin problem, though Ramsey has been ruled out.  Abou Diaby is however back involved, while the good news is that Andre Santos is only two weeks away from rejoining the squad in training.

Given neither of Robin or Vermaelen have been definitively ruled out, they could hopefully still be available. I’ll assume they are in the team sheet below, but indicate in brackets the probable replacement should either be ruled out.

Szcznesy

Sagna Koscielny Vermaelen (Djourou) Gibbs

Song Arteta

Rosicky

Walcott Van Persie (Chamakh) Chamberlain

With fingers crossed for good news on our two injury doubts, we have a cracking side for the game. Szcznesy keeps his place in goal, the defence looks solid and balanced with a pair of fullbacks for a change and a tidy partnership at centreback. Further forward the midfield unit is the same that impressed versus Tottenham, with pace down the flanks from our two Englishmen and the effervescent Van Persie completing the attack.

I can’t see much threat from this Liverpool side, but respect is due given that we are playing at Anfield. Their defence is solid, but they lack creativity in the middle of the park and haven’t got a holding midfielder to speak of which makes me think that we should boss possession relatively comfortably.

Luis Suarez dropping deep will be key for them, the Uruguayan’s goal scoring record isn’t much to write home about but he is certainly a creative talent. Our defence are all fairly comfortable on the ball, so we’ll probably look to play a high defensive line and squeeze the space in between midfield and attack that Suarez likes to play. Song will be happy to pick him up in that area also though we’ll need to be cautious that the midfield doesn’t over commit in attack. A high defensive line will have the added bonus of keeping the aerial threat of Carroll far away from our goal.

Perhaps in anticipation of our high defensive line, Dalglish may play Bellamy as the advanced forward in an attempt to utilise the Welshman’s pace in behind our defence. Such a strategy would be effective, and if I was the Liverpool manager that would be how I would look to exploit this Arsenal side, tactically. The temptation however will be to play the big man given Arsenal’s apparent weakness from set plays.

With the likes of Downing and Kuyt on the wings however I can’t see Liverpool getting many dangerous crosses in the box: Sagna will have Downing in his pocket all game, while Gibbs will only suffer in an aerial contest versus Kuyt. Liverpool often played Kuyt up against Clichy to win the aerial clearances, so expect the Dutchman on the right flank.

The big strength of this Liverpool side is the defence, and they have the second best defensive record in the league this season. With Agger injured, Carragher will probably come in at centreback, which could be crucial for us. With Arsenal surely going to dominate possession, Carragher’s inclusion will likely exacerbate this trend given his penchant for English hoofed clearances. In addition, neither of Carragher or Skrtel will be comfortable stepping out of defence to track Van Persie when the Dutchman drops deep, and with Liverpool’s aforementioned lack of a holding midfielder, our best player could well find himself with plenty of room to pick his passes and hurt Liverpool.

Should Liverpool seek to play higher up the pitch looking for the win, the space in behind the defence and particularly the fullback will be rich pickings for the pace of Walcott and Chamberlain. While Enrique is a capable full back, Chamberlain could get change out of Johnson when we are on the attack, though the defensive abilities of Alex will be tested with Johnson eager to get forward himself and highly capable when doing so.

On the whole I’m relatively confident for this game. Should Vermaelen and Van Persie be fit I think we’ll see the Dutchman relatively free to pull the strings, while the threat of Suarez and Carroll is likely to be nullified by Song and the centrebacks respectively. Liverpool’s main source of strength will be a solid defence, but if they come forward looking for a winner we could nick one on the break.

2-0 to the Arsenal for me, 1-1 if Robin isn’t fit to play.