Europe is back – Previewing Arsenal’s trip to Milan « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade

By Phil Gregory

After a tight win over Sunderland, our quest for the top four received a timely boost with another poor result on Chelsea’s behalf. With the return of the Champions League however, such issues take a back seat. Previous tumultuous league campaigns for the Arsenal have resulted in good runs in the Champions League, with 2008-09 and our appearance in the 2006 final coinciding with iffy domestic performances, so perhaps this could be a good year for Arsenal in Europe.

Arsenal versus Milan brings back memories of a great win away in the San Siro before finally exiting in shall we say “controversial” circumstances against Liverpool. Since that memorable evening in Italy, much has changed however as a look at the line-up that day indicates:

Almunia, Clichy, Senderos, Gallas, Sagna, Diaby, Fabregas, Flamini, Eboue, Hleb, Adebayor

Assuming Sagna starts, we’ll only have a single player from that line-up likely to start, with all the others heading for pastures anew except Diaby.

On the injury front, the only change from the weekend is the absence of Mertesacker. While concrete news is not yet out in regards to the severity of his ankle problem, Per is apparently at a specialist today so news should be forthcoming shortly. Thankfully, his absence could be tempered by the availability of Vermaelen and Djourou for centreback duties, with the return of a couple of fullbacks recently.

Szcznesy

Sagna Djourou Koscielny Vermaelen

Song Arteta

Ramsey

Walcott Van Persie Rosicky

The line-up prediction for this week was a bit of a puzzler. The injury to Mertesacker rocks the boat given he and Koscielny have formed an impressive central defensive partnership this season. Wenger said that “the most natural option” is to switch Vermaelen to centreback, which we’d all agree is the ideal solution, getting our best defender back in his best position. That said it opens up a problem at left back which isn’t easily solved. Gibbs is available, but it seems it is not completely confirmed that he is going to start, as Wenger wasn’t explicit in that regard, as he normally is. Bar a totally outlandish option of someone like Coquelin filling in at left back, I think Wenger might be pulling a fast one, keeping the situation vague to disrupt our opponent’s preparation. This isn’t his normal modus operandi, but it seems plausible and personally I expect Vermaelen will line up at left back, with Djourou replacing Mertesacker instead. I could well be wrong, but I can’t see Gibbs, with no recent matches to shake off the rust, being thrown in at the San Siro.

The degree of gamble involved in Gibbs starting depends on his physical condition, something Arsène is best placed to judge from seeing him in training. The question in Wenger’s mind is simple: is the gain from playing Vermaelen at centreback over Djourou greater than any concern over throwing Gibbs back in, as opposed to keeping Vermaelen at left back?  Djourou’s not a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, so I think he’ll do fine if called up.

Really though, nobody has a clue what’s going to happen in regards to the defence, and no doubt Milan will be a little baffled too which is no bad thing.

The midfield was a bit of a conundrum too. Rosicky has been performing very well in the middle, and I was torn between whether to select him or the rested Ramsey in that playmaker role. When I considered our forward options however, the choice became pretty clear. Van Persie and Walcott will both start, but the left side is much more open to debate. Chamberlain has held that position in recent games, but starting him away from home in Europe is a totally different kettle of fish, and his pace off the bench could be devastating. Similarly Arshavin, even though he looked much improved against Sunderland isn’t someone I’d want on the flank in a European away game. Unless I’m much mistaken, I don’t think Gervinho will come into the equation given the ACN only finished recently. Finally, I think the same logic that applies to Arshavin applies to Henry too, with the weekend’s match winner likely to be on the bench. Rosicky on the other hand, while lacking in the attacking penetration required in a wide forward – I much prefer him in central midfield – would help our possession game, which will be crucial away. Moreover he’s pretty solid defensively and if his ability to play the ninety after starting versus Sunderland is the issue, he could make way for Chamberlain/Henry on 60mins if needed.

As to the game itself, the charge levelled against this new Milan side is that their midfield is more functional than artistic, something we should seek to take advantage pf with plenty of pressing looking to force the likes of Van Bommel and Prince-Boateng into giving the ball away. Some may expect a more workmanlike side to be able to take advantage of Arsenal’s perceived weaknesses when the rough stuff is thrown around, but with a good surface at the San Siro we’ll be able to pass it around quicker than they can chase.

As ever in the away games, there are the conflicting temptations of being cautious to avoid defeat, against the need to score the away goal. I personally doubt that, statistically, there is any evidence having the second leg at home is of benefit – arguably the away team in the second leg potentially have 120 minutes to score an away goal, but on the flipside the home side have up to 120 minutes of home advantage, so it’s swings and roundabouts.

An away goal or two would be great, that much is clear. However I’m confident we can beat anyone at the Emirates, especially with a side that has fewer (touch wood) injuries than it has earlier in the season so a win and/or lots of away goals in the first leg isn’t necessarily a requirement. With my Arsenal hat on I’m going to anticipate a 2-1 win, with us grabbing a late goal on the break to win it when AC are pushing for their own winner.