Do we win more games when Cesc and Van Persie play? The bigger picture « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
Do we really win more games when Cesc and Van Persie play? Part-2
By Dark Prince
Last week, many had argued that the stats which had been presented in the first part of this article did not show the true picture for Arsenal in the presence or absence of Cesc and Van Persie. So by the popular suggestion, I went a step further and collected the stats for Arsenal’s performance against the top 6 premier league teams, excluding Arsenal, of each season and also Champions League teams since 2006. And what I got was some interesting results.
Before I present the stats, I want to say that the top 6, excluding Arsenal, of each EPL season has been different since 2006. Also for the Champions League fixtures, I’ve only accounted for matches of the knockout stages, i.e the group stage matches have been excluded, and that is because, as many would agree, there has been hardly any competition for us in the group stages in the last 4 years.
Starting off with our performance against Top 6 EPL teams of each season since 2006-07, i.e 12 matches each year which gives a total of 48 matches upto the 2009-10 season.
Cesc has played 39 matches of the total 48 matches. Arsenal’s record when Cesc plays is as follows,
With Cesc – P- 39, W- 15, D- 13, L-11 Success rate- 38.5% Goals Scored – 58 (1.5 per match)
Goals Conceded- 53 (1.4 per match)
The first thing that comes to my mind is the low success rate we have against the top 6. Arsenal’s success rate being 58.1% in all competitions in Lord Wenger’s era. Also though we are scoring a good number of goals, we are conceding almost the same amount. We did have 10 clean sheets among those 39 games but we still conceded a lot in the remaining 29 games. The commendable part is that we lose only 28.2% matches against the top 6 when Cesc plays.
So what happens when Cesc doesn’t play?? An obvious answer,
Without Cesc – P- 9, W- 2, D- 4, L-3 Success rate- 22.3% Goals Scored- 8 (0.9 per match)
Goals Conceded- 10 (1.1 per match)
Ok, I admit, against the top 6, we need Cesc to perform better. The success rate drops to 22.3%, goals scoring rate drops to less than a goal per match, it seems bad. Though we still only lose marginally more, 33.3% of those matches.
In conclusion, I can say that Cesc definitely makes an impact, a winning impact. But still Arsenal must try to improve on their low success rate against the top 6 to increase their title winning chances.
Now coming to Van Persie, we all read last week, the large number of matches he has missed since 2006. Its pretty much the same case against the top 6. He has only played 23 matches out of a possible 48 since 2006.
With Van Persie- P- 23, W- 7, D- 9, L- 7 Success rate- 30.4% Goals Scored- 31 (1.3 per match)
Goals Conceded- 27 (1.2 per match)
Well, our record isn’t as good when Van Persie plays. Success rate is low but we only lose 30.5% of the matches. Thats just marginally more than when Cesc plays.
So the stats should be worse when Van Persie doesn’t play, right?? Surprisingly no…
Without Van Persie- P- 25, W- 10, D- 8, L- 7 Success rate- 40% Goals Scored- 35 (1.4 per match)
Goals Conceded- 36 (1.4 per match)
That’s really interesting. We win more matches, score more goals without Van Persie. In fact, when Van Persie doesn’t play, we lose marginally fewer matches – 28% of our matches. Also our goal scoring rate is better without Van Persie. Quite interesting, eh?
Till now it seems as if, we can handle it better when Van Persie doesn’t play but Cesc remains an important part.
So what happens when both Cesc and Van Persie play together??
With Cesc and Van Persie- P- 16, W- 7, D- 5, L- 4 Success rate- 43.8% Goals Scored- 26 (1.6 per match)
Goals Conceded- 19 (1.2 per match)
Unfortunately, out of 48 matches against the top 6, Cesc and Van Persie have featured together only in 16 matches. That’s very low. But with both of them playing together, we have a very good success rate of 43.8% and our we lose only 25% of our matches. Our goal scoring rate too is at its best at 1.6 goals per match and we concede rather less.
It is sad that we don’t see both Cesc and Van Persie playing together a lot. Every title winning team has had a lethal combo of a midfielder and striker, eg, Viera and Henry, Ronaldo and Rooney, Lampard and Drogba, Kaka and Shevchenko, etc. We too have one but they hardly feature together because of their persistent injuries.
So apparently, we should be performing the worst when neither Cesc nor Van Persie play. Or is it?
Without Cesc and Van Persie- P- 2, W- 2, D- 0, L- 0 Success rate- 100%!! Goals Scored- 3 (1.5 per match)
Goals Conceded- 1 (0.5 per match)
Arsenal played only 2 matches which featured neither Cesc nor Van Persie. But both of them were won. A 100% success rate, sounds nice, doesn’t it? I know, its just 2 matches, but we did win them, it cant be ignored. This really gives us a hope that Arsenal does have a squad to beat the best teams without its best players.
The Chelsea game a couple of weeks before was the first game that we lost against a top 6 side (in this case, a potential top 6 side) since 2006 which featured neither Cesc nor Van Persie. But we did dominate that game and almost killed that game in the opening stages.
Now lets look at the stats for the Champions league knockout matches. What we get is an almost complete opposite result for Cesc and Van Persie.
In total we have played 16 knockout matches in Champions League since 2006. But Arsenal has won only 4 out of it. Yes, you heard it right. A success rate of only of 25%. And out of 16, Arsenal has lost 7 matches. Really disappointing. To be the best European side in the world, we have to perform better than that.
So does Cesc make a difference for us in the Champions League??
With Cesc- P- 12, W- 2, D- 5, L- 5 Success rate- 16.7% Goals Scored- 14 (1.2 per match)
Goals Conceded- 16 (1.3 per match)
Can you believe it? Arsenal has won only 2 out of the 16 European knockout matches when Cesc plays. A very low success rate of 16.7%. Loss is at 41.6%. We may score goals but end up conceding more also.
So what happens when Cesc doesn’t play?? The complete opposite…
Without Cesc- P- 4, W- 2, D- 0, L- 2 Success rate- 50% Goals Scored- 7 (1.8 per match)
Goals Conceded- 5 (1.3 per match)
Now though we have played only 4 matches without Cesc, we have a better record. 50% success rate is quite good, though the loss rate is also 50%. So would you prefer resting Cesc for the knockout stages of Champions league??
Van Persie’s European knockout stats are quite different from his Top 6 EPL stats. Though one thing remains the same and that is his absence from majority of the matches.
With Van Persie- P- 6, W- 2, D- 1, L- 3 Success rate- 33.3% Goals Scored- 8 (1.3 per match)
Goals Conceded- 9 (1.5 per match)
Now its Van Persie’s chance to shine. Van Persie’s success rate is double of that of Cesc’s. Though loss rate is at 50%. We are still conceding lots of goals.
Now without Van Persie for European Knockout matches.
Without Van Persie- P- 10, W- 2, D- 4, L- 4 Success rate- 20% Goals Scored- 13 (1.3 per match)
Goals Conceded- 12 (1.2 per match)
So without Van Persie, we perform poorly in Europe. 20% success rate is low, though still its better than Cesc’s. But we can still see that we do score goals without Van Persie.
So now the question arises…does the Cesc and Van Persie combo as effective together in European knockout matches??
With Cesc and Van Persie- P- 4, W- 1, D- 1, L- 2 Success rate- 25% Goals Scored- 7 (1.8 per match)
Goals Conceded- 8 (2 per match)
Now lots of talking points here. First of all, as usual, Cesc and Van Persie have played together only in 4 out of 16 European Knockout matches since 2006. A very low figure. Secondly, our success rate isn’t good enough even when both play together. Loss rate is at 50%, which is also disappointing. Also both goal scoring and goal conceding rate is high.
Now coming to when neither Cesc nor Van Persie plays. And yes, Arsenal again, surprisingly, performs better without both of them.
Without Cesc and Van Persie- P- 2, W- 1, D- 0, L- 1 Success rate- 50% Goals Scored- 6 (3 per match!!)
Goals Conceded- 4 (2 per match)
Yes, we scored 6 goals in 2 matches without either Cesc or Van Persie. We have a good success rate of 50%, though we played only 2 matches without them.
Maybe we all remember those two matches. Both happened last season. The first against Porto in the round of 16 which we won 5-0 and the second against Barca in the quarters which we lost 1-4. Though it required Barca’s best player to produce his best performance of last season to beat Arsenal without its best players. But we all know how we performed in the opening 20 minutes of that game in Nou Camp. That’s the potential we have even without our best players. Though we have be more consistent on that performance.
The stats for Arsenal against the top 6 EPL teams and European sides shows us where we need to improve. In both cases we are conceding a lot of goals. In both cases, our best players have missed a lot of games. But we have lots of positives as well, such as, in both cases, we score more than a goal per game. In both cases, we score lots of goals without Cesc and/or Van Persie. And also in both cases, we have performed better when neither Cesc nor Van Persie plays.
I think, as Arsenal Fans, all we need to do is to keep the faith, not only with Arsene Wenger, but also on each player that plays for us. All of our players may not be as visionary as Cesc or as clinical as Van Persie, but all of them are as important to the team as Cesc or Van Persie.
Every player has his own importance. And everyone gets a chance to prove his worth, and believe me, almost all of them live up to their promise and easily gel into our team. That’s why we have so many different goal scorers every year and probably thats why Arsenal as a team, has been one of the best in the world.
The best part is our squad is still young and can only improve each year. Players like Song, Diaby, Fabianski, Nasri, Walcott, Bendtner have improved a lot over the last couple of years and there is still lots of room for further improvement. The rest too will improve with time and experience. And with such a vastly improving squad, it wont be long when Arsenal start winning trophies, lots of them.
Keep the faith Fellow Gooners!! 
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