Arsenal News » 2009 » December » 25

Phil Gregory got the score against Hull absolutely right, following on the overwhelmingly brilliant prediction here for the Liverpool game.  Indeed we also got the Burnley match absolutely right apart from the score and the result.

So here we go again with Phil’s preview and prediction.  Oh and don’t forget the excitingly stunning advertisement for “Making the Arsenal” at the end of the piece.

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Arsenal host the Premier League’s form team in the shape of Aston Villa this Sunday.  Martin O’Neill’s side will be no strangers to Arsenal fans, having pushed us for the fourth Champions League place for much of the 08/09 season.

Personally, I’m really anticipating this tie.  If you’ve been reading Untold Arsenal for a while you hopefully don’t remember me in the “Rivals Review” series ranking Villa at the bottom of a pile of top four wannabes. Since then Villa have performed impressively, with O’Neill’s signings naturally proving shrewd acquisitions after my criticism of his seemingly xenophobic transfer dealings.

Recent form:

Aston Villa have been impressive since struggling to a home draw over Tottenham, with good away wins over Sunderland, Manchester United and Portsmouth.

Any Arsenal fans feeling complacent in regards to this match should note that we lost at two of those grounds, though Villa were unimpressive in their 1-0 win over a Stoke side that travel poorly.

Much has been made of the Villan’s impressive defensive record in the league this season, and they have conceded the least goals in the League so far this season. Seven clean sheets, with no goals conceded in the last four games is impressive, but is only two less than the Arsenal, at the cost of scoring a staggering  fifteen fewer goals in the league.

Arsenal have an impressive 10 points from 12 in their last four league matches and despite crucial  personnel out injured up front, look like a side showing the consistency Wenger pinpoints as key to the eventual league champions.

While starting sluggishly against Hull, Arsenal eventually swept away Phil Brown’s finest and will feel little fear from a Villa side equal on points with us having played a game more.

Injuries:

Cesc Fabregas is rated as 50:50 for the match, having pulled out of training on Christmas Eve.

Armand Traore is passed fit to play, though long term absentees Van Persie and Djourou are out for the foreseeable future.

Niklas Bendtner, Tomas Rosicky and Gael Clichy are all out until early January, while Englishman Gibbs is out until February.

Although the Guardian is reporting Nasri is suspended, this is not true.

Aston Villa are without England international Emile Heskey, while defenders Bouma and Davies are out until the new year. Craig Gardner is expected to be out for the match with a back injury, but there is a chance he will recover in time.

Key men:

With John Carew one yellow away from suspension and a crucial home tie versus Liverpool coming up for the Villans, expect to see Gabriel Agbonlahor start up front on his own. The pacey England international has eight league goals so far this campaign, and will need looking to add to his total; on the break for Villa.

Petrov has been pinpointed by his own team-mates as a key player in this clash, with the Bulgarian international having reinvented himself as a holding midfield player since his move from Celtic. Expect the Villa captain to keep tight in the middle of the park and attempt to stifle Arsenal’s creativity.

Thomas Vermaelen, purchased to shore up an Arsenal back-line vulnerable to high balls into the box will be tested by a Villa side looking to hit on the break. The Belgian won’t struggle to deal with the Villan’s crosses, but he will have to be wary of the pace of Agbonlahor and Young.

With Villa likely to pack the midfield, Alex Song will be looking to shine in a tight midfield battle. The Cameroonian’s class is sure to come to the fore against what is a hard-working, but ultimately relatively average Villa midfield three. Expect him to have a key role to play too in regards to dealing with those high balls, and of course snuffing out Villa counter attacks at the source.

Arsenal predicted line-up:

• Almunia
• Sagna Gallas Vermaelen Traore
• Song
• Denilson Fabregas
• Nasri Eduardo Arshavin

Subs: Fabianksi, Diaby, Eboue, Walcott, Ramsey, Vela, Wilshere

Fairly self-explanatory team here. With Traore ruled fit we have the pacey set of fullbacks needed to cope with Villa’s speed down the flanks, while Vermaelen is the man to head away their crosses. Almunia, while not the most commanding of goalkeepers will have a renewed confidence after a penalty save last time out in front of the Emirates faithful.

Song will be our ever-present holder and won’t struggle to contain a decidedly average Villa midfield. Fabregas, despite recently overcoming an injury will start while Denilson will probably score as many free kicks as he gets opportunities as well as playing his usual understated, intelligent game in the middle of the park.

Our Russian genius will be manoeuvred out to the left forward position, with Eduardo Da Silva set to put in a performance of quality and confidence in the central strikers role. Nasri takes over in the right forward slot, with Theo on the bench ready to impress if he gets the opportunity.

Prediction:

Though Villa went 442 against United, I’m expecting them to line up 451 against us. O’Neill could well have wanted to take advantage of a weakened United defence, especially with some just back from injury. With Heskey out and Carew a single yellow away from missing the Liverpool clash, I’m expecting Agbonlahor as the lone striker. This lends itself to the belief Villa will pack the midfield and attempt to stifle us, and hope to catch us on the break or take advantage of the set pieces.

We’ll need to be clinical and take our chances, and force Villa to come out and play. I expect us to break them down: players such as Arshavin and Nasri have the flair to take men on and create space. While their team is hard-working and spirited (and should not be taken lightly) we have the better team on paper and with home advantage, we should be picking up the three points. We should also consider that with a game against Liverpool on the following Tuesday, some may believe O’Neill will have one eye on that fixture.

It won’t be easy, but 2-1 to the Arsenal.

Phil Gregory is a 20 year old student at the University of Leeds. Studying Economics and French, he’s been a Gunner since he got interested in football at a young age, and is often sighted at the away games in the North and Midlands.

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