RefWatch Arsenal Vs Manchester City (08/04/2012 – 16:00) « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News, supporting the club, the players and the manager
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- Referee: Martin Atkinson
- Assistant 1: Peter Kirkup
- Assistant 2: Darren Cann
- 4th Official: Andre Marriner
Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… not a big one today as I’m staying with family and the missus is glowering at me.
Asian Handicap (betting line) market:
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.125 | 0 – 1/4 | 1.775 |
The Under/Over market:
| Over | Handicap | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.000 | 2 3/4 | 1.900 |
Let’s have a look at the Referee:
- Full name: Martin Atkinson
- Date of birth: 31-Mar-1971 (Age 41)
- Place of birth: Bradford
- Resides: West Yorkshire
- EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2003/2004
- EPL/ECH Games to date: 223
Martin Atkinson – “No… I said Novus ordo seclorum guv!”
It’s Martin Atkinson again… you remember him from the excellent and ground-breaking referee reviews:
Let’s check out his stats!
Martin Atkinson has had 17 games for Arsenal consisting of 9 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses.
Arsenal are currently in 5th in Martin Atkinson’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.88 PPG.
In Martin Atkinson’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 7th with an average positive swing of 0.20.
Arsenal are currently in 19th in Martin Atkinson’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.88 BPM.
In Martin Atkinson’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 24th with an overall average of 5.69 FPB.
The first thing I notice from the above graph is the gradual downward trend of underperformance in Arsenal’s figures under Atkinson. The second thing that strikes me is the FPB/BPM lines in which for, the last two seasons, Arsenal has received, on average, a disproportional amount of bookings per foul than our opposition.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Martin Atkinson.
The booking breakdown for Arsenal under Atkinson is, at a glance, fairly random – there is a slight trend towards bookings coming earlier in the game for our defence and midfield combined with some fairly meaningless substitute bookings very late in the game.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Martin Atkinson.
Again we can see a trend to earlier bookings, although there is less off them. Arsenal’s opposition bookings concentrate in the midfield with less than I would expect in the defence.
Let’s move on now and see how Manchester City fare under the all seeing eye of Martin Atkinson:
Martin Atkinson has had 18 games for Manchester City consisting of 10 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses.
Manchester City are currently in 6th in Martin Atkinson’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.83 PPG.
In Martin Atkinson’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Manchester City come 13th with an average positive swing of 0.05.
Manchester City are currently in 16th in Martin Atkinson’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.83 BPM.
In Martin Atkinson’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Manchester City come 21st with an overall average of 6.15 FPB.
We can see from the graph above that Manchester City have had their ups and downs under Martin Atkinson but right now they are definitely in an ‘up’. Their low points were the 2006/2007 season and the 2008/2009 season – but since sometime in the 2009/2010 season it’s all been good form with a strong over performance and very good return of points.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Manchester City took all their bookings under Martin Atkinson.
There are no real trends in the booking figures that I can see other than an unusual number of substitute bookings and a fairly low level of bookings to the midfield.
Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Manchester City’s opposition took all their bookings under Martin Atkinson.
Let’s move on now to check out how Martin Atkinson performs against selected teams in the EPL:
Despite SAF’s complaints about Atkinson – they do ok under him with regards to the return of points – although he does have a point in that, until this season, they [Manchester United] do show an overall underperformance. Chelsea show a huge over performance under Atkinson which is down to some very favourable decisions going their way over the seasons (including the Chelsea mugging of Manchester United which sparked the SAF hissy fit) although their results this season have been hit and miss. Arsenal were showing a good performance under Atkinson until recently – since the 2009/2010 season it’s been all downhill – Manchester City on the other hand have risen from a disastrous return of points in 2008/2009 to the strongest performers on the graph.
I’m not massively confident about this game – given Atkinson’s past Chelsea and now Citeh leanings – but there is hope. This is a home game and, as we have seen from the shenanigans of Dean, it’s getting harder to mug Arsenal on their own turf. The Emirates now is starting to develop a character of support and respond through the complex network of individual voices to create one voice… and if we make that voice heard and demand our rights as fans to watch proper football rather than a pantomime we can intimidate and we can support and we can give our team the level playing field they deserve.
Be noisy people, anger is an energy – victoria concordia crescit.
The Predictortron gives Arsenal a 0.865887 of a goal advantage…
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