Mike Riley: the ref statistics you quote are simply wrong « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
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This is the fourth in a series of articles exploring what has gone wrong with the organisation of refereeing in the Premier League. The previous articles in the series are listed at the end.
By Walter Broeckx
The essence of Mike Riley’s defence of the way the association that runs refereeing in the Premier League handles itself is that there is no bias. No bias at all he dared to say. And this is so mystifying for me as a ref that I think it needs investigating.
That the media just takes this for granted and just repeats the message is to be expected of the media who have a lot of money invested in the well-being of the Premier League. “Never let some clear numbers get in your way,” is their motto. Just follow the leader and do the propaganda work.
As you will know by now I am not really a “follow the media” person. I do not believe the numbers they give to the public and I don’t accept them just because they are said.
I have shown that Riley has not been telling the truth when he came out with his “refs get 93% of the important calls correct”. I have proven that with the numbers in hand and with the more than 110 games reviewed so far, it is around 70% of the important decisions that are correct.
Was it a deliberate lie? Or does he really believe his nonsense numbers? Only he will know.
I have also shown that Riley has not been telling the truth when he came out with his “assistant-referees get +99% of their calls correct”. Well maybe if you just take the throw ins it could be right. But when it comes to offside decisions (and he was talking about offside decisions when he gave his number) I get a completely different story.
We came up to only 90% of the offside calls correct this season. Now of course it could be that last season the assistant-referees were exceptional and had the best season ever. And maybe this season the assistant-referees have been a bit crap. But somehow I don’t really would buy in that fairy tale.
Was it again a deliberate lie? Or was he again believing some nonsense numbers? Only he will know.
Let us move on to the bias argument. There is no bias in the EPL he said. All is fair and square. Let us once again try to look at the numbers. Because every person who follows football and even sports in general knows that there is something like home/away bias. And Mike Riley, you should note that this also is a form of bias. But according to Riley it doesn’t exist in the EPL – which is odd in the extreme.
There have been studies about this before. But I will give him some numbers from his own “unbiased league” this season.
So I have taken the games and the refs and the yellow cards they have been giving and put them in this table you can see below.
|
Name |
Matches |
YELLOW |
H |
A |
| Phil Dowd |
24 |
94 |
37 |
57 |
| Mike Dean |
24 |
89 |
46 |
43 |
| Martin Atkinson |
24 |
80 |
31 |
49 |
| Mike Jones |
19 |
75 |
28 |
47 |
| Howard Webb |
24 |
72 |
33 |
39 |
| Kevin Friend |
15 |
59 |
26 |
33 |
| Andre Marriner |
16 |
58 |
25 |
33 |
| Mark Clattenburg |
19 |
56 |
28 |
28 |
| Lee Mason |
20 |
54 |
24 |
30 |
| Chris Foy |
16 |
45 |
15 |
30 |
| Peter Walton |
15 |
45 |
21 |
24 |
| Michael Oliver |
18 |
44 |
21 |
23 |
| Anthony Taylor |
14 |
39 |
18 |
21 |
| Mark Halsey |
16 |
38 |
16 |
22 |
| Lee Probert |
16 |
36 |
15 |
21 |
| Stuart Attwell |
10 |
33 |
17 |
16 |
| Neil Swarbrick |
9 |
27 |
13 |
14 |
| Jon Moss |
9 |
27 |
14 |
13 |
|
308 |
971 |
428 |
543 |
|
| TOTAL |
44 % |
56 % |
And so it is plain to see what everybody who follows football knows: that apparently there is some bias when it comes to handing out yellow cards. Because in Mike Riley’ Utopia PL, the home and away teams would be treated in the same way and the yellow cards would be the same for them. After all it should even out.
But if you look at it you will see that the home teams get only 44 % of the yellow cards and the away teams get 56%. This is what you and I call the home and away bias. A bias we know and we should not accept, but which we do accept as being some kind of human factor which is hard to get out of the system.
But apparently the most important person in the Premier League Ref World doesn’t know of its existence. And apparently he is the one that should know about it and do something about it. He is the one that should talk to the refs and say: hey guys there is some bias, the home and away bias and you should take it in to consideration a bit.
But it is a fact that away teams get more cards than the home teams, Mr. Riley. Time for you to find out about it.
And to round this off I also would like to point at the referees themselves a bit. And I will add their percentage in a bonus table. Because in this table you can see if a ref is a homer or not.
|
Name |
Matches |
YELLOW |
HOME |
AWAY |
| Phil Dowd |
24 |
94 |
39% |
61% |
| Mike Dean |
24 |
89 |
52% |
48% |
| Martin Atkinson |
24 |
80 |
39% |
61% |
| Mike Jones |
19 |
75 |
37% |
63% |
| Howard Webb |
24 |
72 |
46% |
54% |
| Kevin Friend |
15 |
59 |
44% |
56% |
| Andre Marriner |
16 |
58 |
43% |
57% |
| Mark Clattenburg |
19 |
56 |
50% |
50% |
| Lee Mason |
20 |
54 |
44% |
56% |
| Chris Foy |
16 |
45 |
33% |
67% |
| Peter Walton |
15 |
45 |
47% |
53% |
| Michael Oliver |
18 |
44 |
48% |
52% |
| Anthony Taylor |
14 |
39 |
46% |
54% |
| Mark Halsey |
16 |
38 |
42% |
58% |
| Lee Probert |
16 |
36 |
42% |
58% |
| Stuart Attwell |
10 |
33 |
52% |
48% |
| Neil Swarbrick |
9 |
27 |
48% |
52% |
| Jon Moss |
9 |
27 |
52% |
48% |
And so you can see that Dowd is a typical home ref. Newcastle anyone? As is Atkinson. Chris Foy is the king of the home refs with only 33% of his cards against the home teams.
And probably I will ruin his career for good when mentioning this but I have said before that in my opinion Clattenburg is the most fair ref in the EPL. He can have a bad game but even then it is bad for both teams. But he is the only ref that has managed to get the same number of yellow cards for the home team as for the away team. So one could say that Clattenburg is the only ref that has been free of this bias in this season.
So Mike Riley was just talking about Clattenburg when he said there is no bias? But sorry Mike you forgot the rest then.
The problem is once again that I cannot tell for sure what Mike Riley is doing when he says this. After all the numbers we have can be found on the internet by any person who is looking for it.
But we have all this secrecy of the PGMOL. After giving us numbers that apparently are not correct you have to wonder what is going on. Is he ignorant of the truth? If so then it shows that he surely is not the right person at the right place as the head of the referees.
So once again Mr. Mike Riley I would politely ask you to come out in the open with ALL THE NUMBERS. Come out in the open with why the refs are appointed like they are now. And most of all let us know where and how you get your figures. And if you cannot justify all the figures you have put out, with these odd percentages you quote you should resign from the PGMOL. I want to trust the person who runs the refs in the PL. And from all you have done in the past and present I see no sign at all that you are a person that can be trusted. Open up the books please and tell us what is going on.
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