Thursday, November 24th, 2011 « Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger; coach of the decade
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Possession, pass success or shots?
By Alek Pan
Almost everyone knows that Arsenal is very successful in the areas of possession, pass success and shots on target, but which component is more influential in terms of league position? Which component helps more to be #1 in the league table?
I tried to find the answers on these questions by comparing some numbers of the biggest clubs of the biggest European leagues.
This is how the tables of the biggest European leagues looks like today.
| La Liga | pts | Serie A | pts | Bundesliga | pts | Ligue 1 | pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 31 | Juventus | 22 | Bayern | 28 | PSG | 30 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 28 | Lazio | 22 | Dortmund | 26 | Montpellier | 30 |
| 3 | Valencia | 24 | Milan | 21 | M’gladbach | 26 | Lille | 25 |
| 4 | Levante | 23 | Udinese | 21 | Schalke 04 | 25 | Rennes | 25 |
| 5 | Málaga | 20 | AS Roma | 17 | Bremen | 23 | Lyon | 23 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 18 | Palermo | 16 | Stuttgart | 21 | Toulouse | 23 |
| 7 | Athletic | 17 | Napoli | 15 | Leverkusen | 21 | Lorient | 20 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 17 | Genoa | 15 | Hannover 96 | 19 | St Etienne | 20 |
| 9 | Atlético | 16 | Chievo | 15 | Hoffenheim | 17 | Caen | 19 |
| 10 | Rayo | 16 | Parma | 15 | Hertha | 17 | Marseille | 18 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 15 | Siena | 14 | Cologne | 16 | Sochaux | 17 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 14 | Catania | 14 | Wolfsburg | 16 | Evian Thonon | 16 |
| 13 | Betis | 13 | Atalanta | 13 | K’lautern | 13 | Brest | 15 |
| 14 | Sporting | 12 | Fiorentina | 13 | Hamburg SV | 13 | Auxerre | 15 |
| 15 | Getafe | 10 | Cagliari | 13 | Mainz | 12 | Valenciennes | 14 |
| 16 | Mallorca | 10 | Inter | 11 | Nurnberg | 12 | Nancy | 14 |
| 17 | R Zaragoza | 10 | Bologna | 10 | SC Freiburg | 11 | Dijon FCO | 14 |
| 18 | Granada | 9 | Lecce | 8 | FC Augsburg | 8 | Bordeaux | 13 |
| 19 | R Sociedad | 9 | Novara | 7 | Nice | 11 | ||
| 20 | Racing | 9 | Cesena | 6 | AC Ajaccio | 8 |
Let’s begin with average ball possession.
| Team | League | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | La Liga | 71.8 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 65.2 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | La Liga | 61.5 |
| 4 | Juventus | Serie A | 59.6 |
| 5 | Roma | Serie A | 59.1 |
| 6 | Chelsea | Premier League | 58.9 |
| 7 | AC Milan | Serie A | 58.9 |
| 8 | Lille | Ligue 1 | 58.5 |
| 9 | Arsenal | Premier League | 58.3 |
| 10 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 57.1 |
| 11 | Manchester City | Premier League | 56.7 |
| 12 | Valencia | La Liga | 56.3 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 56 |
| 14 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 55.6 |
| 15 | Swansea | Premier League | 55.4 |
| 16 | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 54.8 |
| 17 | Betis | La Liga | 54.8 |
| 18 | Athletic Bilbao | La Liga | 54.7 |
| 19 | Espanyol | La Liga | 54.5 |
| 20 | Manchester United | Premier League | 54.4 |
You can see that possession gives no guarantee to be #1 in some leagues. Real Madrid, despite 10 points of negative difference to Barcelona, stands first in the league table. Chelsea and Arsenal are not in the first two positions in the Premier League.
Swansea are 15th best for the average ball possession of all biggest leagues but stands 13th in EPL table. Marseille are 16th best of all biggest leagues but stand 10th in the ‘Ligue 1’ table. Lille is not a leader of ‘Ligue 1’ but PSG is.
In Italy and Germany leaders had the biggest numbers of ball possession. Also Borussia Dortmund have a second best average ball possession of Bundesliga and stand 2nd in Bundesliga table.
And now pass success percentage.
| Team | League | % |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | La Liga | 90.2 |
| Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 87 |
| Real Madrid | La Liga | 86.3 |
| Chelsea | Premier League | 86.2 |
| Manchester City | Premier League | 86 |
| Roma | Serie A | 85.5 |
| Swansea | Premier League | 85.1 |
| AC Milan | Serie A | 84.6 |
| Arsenal | Premier League | 84.6 |
| Juventus | Serie A | 84.3 |
| Manchester United | Premier League | 84.3 |
| Tottenham | Premier League | 82.8 |
| Lorient | Ligue 1 | 82.7 |
| Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 82.6 |
| Montpellier | Ligue 1 | 82.4 |
| Inter | Serie A | 82.3 |
| Lille | Ligue 1 | 81.6 |
| Valencia | La Liga | 81.2 |
| Lazio | Serie A | 80.8 |
| Villarreal | La Liga | 80.7 |
The pass success percentage helps a team to the top position in the table in Germany more than in other leagues. Bayern Munich – 87, Borussia Dortmund – 80.5. For other leagues leaders it helps less. Especially for ‘Ligue 1’: Lorient, Montpellier, Lille and Betis have better numbers then leader – PSG.
Manchester City have approximately the same number as Chelsea. So for EPL this helps more than for Serie A, La Liga and ‘Ligue 1’.
Let’s take a look at shots per game:
| Team | League | SPG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | Premier League | 20 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | La Liga | 18 |
| 3 | Tottenham | Premier League | 18 |
| 4 | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Barcelona | La Liga | 17 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 17 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 17 |
| 8 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 17 |
| 9 | Liverpool | Premier League | 17 |
| 10 | Chelsea | Premier League | 17 |
| 11 | Arsenal | Premier League | 17 |
| 12 | Roma | Serie A | 17 |
| 13 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 17 |
| 14 | Juventus | Serie A | 16 |
| 15 | AC Milan | Serie A | 16 |
| 16 | Fulham | Premier League | 16 |
| 17 | Wolverhampton | Premier League | 15 |
| 18 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 15 |
| 19 | Manchester United | Premier League | 15 |
| 20 | Betis | La Liga | 15 |
Shots per game work well for leaders of La Liga, EPL and Bundesliga. And it does not work enough in Italy and France.
So we can’t say that for EPL the best way to be #1 is to make more shots per game. But we can say that leader of EPL exceeds all other teams in shots per game.
The leader of La Liga exceeds all other teams in shots per game too.
The leader of Serie A exceeds all other teams in average ball possession but not by much.
The leader of the Bundesliga exceeds all other teams in average ball possession and in pass success percentage.
The leader of ‘Ligue 1’ exceeds all other teams in … nothing.
There are no leagues (Ligue 1 excluded) where leader do not exceeds all other teams in average ball possession or in shots per game.
What does it mean for Arsenal?
These components are very impotent for leadership. And Arsenal is pretty strong on these areas. So strong that target to be in the big 4 this season as they normally are, is a perfectly feasible task.
If you look at the ball possession you can see that Arsenal have almost the same number as Chelsea.
| Team | % |
|---|---|
| Chelsea | 58.9 |
| Arsenal | 58.3 |
| Manchester City | 56.7 |
| Swansea | 55.4 |
| Manchester United | 54.4 |
If you look at the shots per game you will see why Man City and Spurs are very successful today.
| Team | SPG |
|---|---|
| Man City | 20 |
| Tottenham | 18 |
| Arsenal | 17 |
| Chelsea | 17 |
| Liverpool | 17 |
| Fulham | 16 |
| Wolvs | 15 |
| Manchester United | 15 |
May be in EPL (and in La Liga) at a moment more important to make more shots per game than to keep high ball possession?
If so then I think Arsenal can and will improve these numbers.
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