Untold Arsenal: Arsenal News. Supporting the Lord Wenger in all he does » Birmingham away: through a time vortex we bring the teams and the result all before it happens.

By Phil Gregory

Next up is Birmingham away, a match with more than enough plotlines for a football game, but more on that later.

I was talking to a mate about the league run-in (a United fan, unfortunately) and we agreed that it is rapidly resembling a knockout competition. The old cliché of “every game is a cup final” isn’t quite true, but it certainly seems that a loss puts a big dent in a team’s chances.

At the start of the title run-in (Stoke away) I had us winning the league by the slimmest of margins. Since then, we have outperformed my   predictions points-wise (I had us perhaps drawing at Stoke), which placed us two points closer to the top than I expected at this stage.

Chelsea have conspired to drop three points more than my expectations (I had them drawing with City and beating Rovers) while Manchester United have three points more than I expected after beating Liverpool. Which, all in all actually puts us a point further off the pace than I expected us to be at this stage.

This just goes to show that, for all the talk of having an easier run-in, no matter how well we perform, ultimately we are relying on rivals’ errors.

The crunch period is certainly on the horizon: Spurs away is a tough game, while when City visit the Emirates it could be either a walk in the park or it could be a tooth and nail affair, depending on which City side turn up.

United have the tough ties: Coyle’s men have a bit of form as well as home advantage while the Chelsea tie is sandwiched in between the Champions League. Chelsea are at a make or break stage: lose to United and they are almost certainly out of it, while Villa at the Bridge will not be an easy match, either.

I, for one, cannot wait.

But onto the Birmingham tie. Seemingly safe, Mcleish’s men have nothing to play for but we should by no means underestimate them.

Birmingham are a bit of an enigma: they built up an exceptional run of form not so long ago, predominantly built on a solid defence allowing narrow victories to be nicked, with a healthy dose of luck chucked in for good measure.

At St Andrews, they are a very resilient side, losing there only twice. They’ve also only shipped ten goals in fifteen home games, that’s only one more than Manchester United who have the the best home defence.

That said, they are a very low-scoring side too: a mere goal a game at home, the third lowest in the league and significantly less than the teams around them in midtable. Their goal threat is very much at the level of relegation contenders, so with a bit of luck our patched up defence will get through the day fine.

Which leads me onto the defensive situation. With Vermaelen suspended and Sol unlikely to play given the Barcelona tie in midweek, we are pretty much certain to see Silvestre and Song at the back. Much has been made of the loss of Song in midfield, I don’t deny the Cameroonian has been an absolute rock in the middle of the park for us, but I believe Diaby and Denilson have enough between them so that we won’t miss Song if he is played further back.

Predicted line-up:

Almunia

Sagna Silvestre Song Clichy

Denilson

Fabregas Diaby

Rosicky/Nasri Bendtner Arshavin

The rest of the back four, as ever, picks itself. I’d expect Denilson to take up the majority of the defensive duties, though Diaby seems to do his fair share alongside Cesc.

The attack is a little less predictable: Arshavin out wide left, while I’m hoping Bendtner shakes off ankle trouble to start through the middle, with any of Nasri, Rosicky or indeed the form man Eboue out wide right.

One man we need to watch out for is Birmingham’s Ecuadorian striker Christian Benitez. While his goalscoring record isn’t much to write home about, he combines a bit of pace and power to good effect. He’s not got the strength of a Drogba, nor the pace of our Theo, but he has a solid combination of the two gifts allowing them a variety of tricks in his locker.

Will we see Eduardo play? I certainly hope so, though I’d expect him to come off the bench. The Croatian is doing better than his attacker Martin Taylor, who is not even playing Premier League football any more, having signed for Watford since the Eduardo injury.

Ex Birmingham owner David Gold has, since becoming co-owner of West Ham, taken it upon himself to talk about football finance. He was even on a BBC radio broadcast about the business of sport and had some valid points to make.

That said, I couldn’t really take him seriously, since Birmingham’s most recent set of accounts showed an enormous debt accumulated while they were in the Championship. Why? Because Gold neglected to trim the squad and wage bill accordingly for Championship revenues, banking on an immediate return to the Premier League. While that gamble has in hindsight paid off, it is hardly a backstory from which to preach about football finance (and anyone who followed the Championship last season will know that Birmingham’s promotion campaign was no plain sailing).

I’m going to go for a 0-2 victory to the Arsenal. It’ll be a tight game, but I’d happily back us to score against anyone and even with a weakened defence, I can’t see us conceding to this low-scoring Birmingham side.

Enjoy the game, wherever you are watching it!

Phil

——————————————